stupid statistical rant inspired by donks comment while playing live

[jstill]

First off this guy was like the first person Id seen at the local card room I thought might not be horrible (pretty much everytime I think that they go ahead and prove me wrong lol)...

Real dorky looking young kid like 21 probably, thick glasses, pocket protector, calculator wrist watch, pants hiked up over his belly button and sporting suspenders (no offense to all you nerds out there, Im kind of a dork myself).

I thought a couple hands I saw him counting out the chips in the pot, or doing odds in his head. One hand he counted on his fingers so I assumed he wasnt a total donk and might actually be thinking about outs and pot odds and maybe was a 2p2er. I was a bit skeptical just becuz pretty much every pot gives u way more than the needed expressed odds for any draw even gutters at these loose full ring limit tables.

After about 45 minutes, so what like 15-20 hands? he turns to me and says "Man this is bad I havent gotten any good hands" meanwhile hes won 2 pots already and I havent won one yet and Ive been there an hour longer. At this point I know hes a donk cuz only donks ever say that [censored]. It's pretty easy obviously to go well over an hour and not get a hand u should play in full ring limit.

Then he says " 1 in 13" very declaratively ( if thats a word?) obviously trying to flaunt one of the statistics he thinks he knows (which isnt even a very useful one lol). I react by almost laughing which was bad, I dont usually tap on the glass if u will. So since I had just scoffed I felt compelled to say anything else so I was just like "uhhh ur kinda wrong and cant really complain about that anyways"

He gets defensive immediately so Im reacting like " oh damn wish I didnt do that" and then tries to justify it by saying what he was obviously doing wrong. Thinking 4 cards in the deck out of a full deck rather than minusing one from both the numerator and denominator.

I want to respond back how statistically the odds work u get a card so theres 3 in the deck to make ur pair with and 51 left in the deck so its 1/17 or u could think about the odds of a pair as 6 combos each pair so 78 out of the total number of combination of hands 1326, but even after 17 hands u cant complain about not getting a PP its pretty ludicrious because of statistical variance. That'd be like complaining about not getting ur flush every other time u flop it or not hitting a set 1 in every 8. Then I wanted to say how people only ever acknowledge when variance works against them and the samples where they ran worse than expectation in some facet and not all the times they flop more sets or get more PPs in some short insignificant sample, but really I didnt want to say any of this because I kinda go to the card room a lot and its always the same faces.

At this point I'm kind of flustered realizing the whole table is now looking at me waiting to hear what I say since obviously none of them probably have any idea about this kinda stuff (statistics in poker, variance odds ect). I just responded with "uhh... I dont really want to talk about this at the table" which I realized was probably even more incriminating than just saying 1 in 17 and certainly came across ass a very shady if not rude response?

I think my point in all this, if there needs to be one, is just that just about everyone out there is a total donk.

I know more articulate people than myself have done their versions of the evolution of a poker player or a poker players career but I think there are 3 broad stages.

The first, you dont really know what ur doing obviously and u fumble around with the game for awhile struggling with the luck in learning and the results oriented thinking that makes this game of poker such a difficult enigma/ puzzle for so many ( and still always will later on). This stage can take many forms, playing too loose generally to begin with then perhaps too tight if that is ur natural reaction of how to deal with the game (personality or risk aversion/ utility dependent I suppose?). Donkeys come in all shapes and sizes obviously. U do pick up skills here however. U might not suck and be a natural at the game so to speak. U can even get adept at reading people/ hands, analyzing board texture and knowing when to bluff and figure out things like c betting and grasp some idea of appropriate preflop play and perhaps pick up some rough idea about the odds or can identify betting patterns. A novice can still be a winning player obviously even if they dont grasp nearly as many concepts as u should to play this game, likely because everyone they play plays even worse. U think u know everything and play as well as u can and have no way to identify what ur doing incorrectly (going back to that struggle with results oriented thinking and the luck in learning, knowing what are slightly small -EV leaks is very tough to do on ur own since ur sample size is extremely small esp if u only play live or with friends even if u do so regularly. 95% of players dont get past this point (atleast). Everyone thinks they know how to play and play well so they never get any better. I really will never understand why so many inexperienced people think they play well and complain about bad results when really theyve never even tried to figure out a way to improve their play (the thing they can control that will positively effect their outcomes in the long run). Seriously people who have played less hands than some of us do in a month/ week or even day lol think they know everything.

2) U learn the math for real. U learn what odds u need for what outs and probably read a book or two and get a preflop hand chart. Legitimately I think anyone who is ok at poker now could read PNL NL theory and practice or SSHE and go to any casino and be the probably 2nd if not best player at any small stakes live game just becuz everyone else plays so wrong (and those books are great obviously). U calculate equity and learn how to count partial outs ect. U think u know everything and theres nothing left to learn. U just play and think its optimal and become complacent and no longer look for leaks. U probably start playing online at this point (if not in stage one) and begin to multitable. U learn how to talk about poker. Harrington had a great almost color commentary quip in his first volume with the story of the guy "telling a poker hand". Thats roughly what I mean when I say u learn to talk about poker, u learn what is important and the details in a hand that dictate decision making.

3) U get in touch with someone who will give u all the secrets and start really learning the game. For most of us that resource has been 2p2. U start thinking about combinations and Bayes Theorem and fold equity, U calculate equity vs a range of ur opponents hands. At this point u learn how much u have left to learn. U start thinking about hands in terms of lines and are constantly counting pot and stack sizes and planning out hands streets ahead. U want to know everything and every minute situations answer and what factors would change the decision, if u vary board texture/opponents/holdings/ action ect how that effects things. This quest never ends. U always hear that poker takes a minute to learn and a lifetime to master and people say they could play their whole life and still always be constantly struggling to get better. I believe it was Ferguson who said if u arent always trying to get better and constantly improve its not worth playing and Negrenau Doyle and others have said similar things several times about how they are always trying to get better. U can easily play ur whole life and theres enough behind poker, its complicated enough and has a large enough domain of possibles scenarios where u ll never know it all. Even the best thinkers in the game/ on this forum consistently disagree over which play is the best in any particular hand. This is what makes the game so great, and frustrating [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] esp for someone like myself who wants easy upfront answers written in stone.

anyways I wrote this story/rant out once then accidentally deleted it, not fun. Hope someone thinks it was worthwhile I took the time to write it out again.