Laydown against obvious flush

[Murakawa]

Okay, so I just played this hand:

Tournament: Pot Limit 5 Card Draw (75/150) (converter)

SB (1100), Seat 2
Hero (4750), Seat 3
UTG (1030), Seat 5
CO (4665), Seat 6
Button (2210), Seat 1

SB posts 75. Hero posts 150.

Hero is BB with [Jd 4d Ks Qc Kc]

Round 1: (225)

<font color="#666666">UTG folds. </font><font color="green">CO calls. </font><font color="#666666">Button folds. </font><font color="green">SB calls. </font><font color="red">Hero raises 300 to 450. </font><font color="green">CO calls. </font><font color="green">SB calls. </font>
SB takes 3. Hero discards Jd 4d Qc. CO takes 1.

Hero has [Ks Kc Js 7s Kh]

Round 2: (1350)

<font color="green">SB checks. </font><font color="red">Hero bets 600. </font><font color="red">CO raises 2625 to 3225. </font><font color="#666666">SB folds. </font><font color="#666666">Hero folds. </font>

Pot: (2550)

Results: (in white)

<font color="white">Total pot 2625 | Rake 0

</font>

He catches a nine high flush and shows it.

As far as I can tell he's barely getting the pot odds for this move, and sometimes might be beat out by a bigger hand. I see a lot of players doing this. Obviously it worked out well for him. I'm way confused right now, but how much is risking to win how much in the end, and does he have the right odds? What do you guys think of this move? A lot of wining PL tourney players seem to pull it and do well. BUT I come from limit so i hate come draws.

[flafishy]

Best I can figure, he's facing roughly 3:1 pot odds. He's 4.25:1 to catch his flush. Obviously, he doesn't have pot odds to call.

I know some folks here will talk implied odds all night long, but I don't buy it. You can stretch the implied odds argument to justify almost any donk-call you want to make.

[Murakawa]

As much as I love donkaments sometimes I feel like there are so many loose passive and weak tight players in these games that it becomes profitable for the bad ones. If they have a streak of luck it seems like they are unstopable. If you'll always get your flush odds implied then go for it, but against good players you wouldn't. It's also those same players who call with Queens vs an UTG raise who always seem to outdraw us when it's really inconvinient.

[flafishy]

Take that last post and move it to a thread about NLHE MTTs, and you wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

Sounds to me like you have just taken it on the chin a couple of times in a row. It does happen. And when it happens a couple of times in a row, it feels like it happens "all the time."

Read Nojitsu's latest post over at the tourney thread that I started (which is not so much low content any more, by the way) about the strategy he used for winning the daily. Seems to me that's the kind of stuff that will cancel out a lot of the stuff you're complaining about here.

[Notjitsu]

This is why I don't like putting many chips into the pot post draw.

You have to figure the guy in the SB is drawing to something. I would think he'd raise 2 pair with one limper...maybe not, but it seems likely. Anytime I see limp draw 1, I think draw unless I have reason to believe otherwise.

That being said, he's 4.25-1 to catch a flush. At the same time, the guy in the BB is 2.5-1 to improve to two pair or better. But you have to think he's going to bet out an improved hand at least half the time (probably much more with his 500 stack and big pot), which puts him at least 5-1 against giving you action on your 600 bet.

So basically, that 600 bet is borderline a loser (it probably isn't if you get into the full likelihoods..calling with AA or QQ and such) This is the basis for the strategy that I mentioned in the other thread. If a small value bet with a hand like KKK post draw is even remotely debatable, then its clear that the chips to be made are going to be primarily predraw if your hand isn't using all 5 cards. (Unless you are up against draw 3's only that is.)

[Big Limpin]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG folds. CO calls. Button folds. SB calls. Hero raises 300 to 450. CO calls. SB calls.
SB takes 3. Hero discards Jd 4d Qc. CO takes 1.

Hero has [Ks Kc Js 7s Kh]

Round 2: (1350)

SB checks. Hero bets 600. CO raises 2625 to 3225. SB folds. Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sick bluff? Or value stacking-off? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

I think this would be a great place for CO to bluff you, but they never do, so give him credit for the hand and good fold.

Could a winning strategy involve massive overbets on missed draws, and smaller (callable) bets when making draws? He did, after all, make u fold KKK after putting in t600 already. What hand would you call him with here? And you did draw three, how strong normally is your hand? Perhaps you wouldn't bet out the 600 with just KK, but you wouldn't be calling pushes either.


CO could show a profit bluffing every missed draw? He only payed 300 to get to that situation. Push if he misses, min-raise u if he hits. You'd have called a smaller raise with KKK for sure, i know i would.

Yeah, villain had it backwards, he pushes when he MAKES the hand, and prolly check-folds when he misses. donkyee

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]