Appropriate draw play?

[Notjitsu]

It was jokish advice. But I don't know if flat out horrible is fitting. Maybe not appropriate for .50/1.00, and certainly not a regular action to take, but if the unknowns in the equation about the players already in the pot fit the right profiles, why not?

If player one was you (flafishy), and player two was Biggle. Would it be inneffective? Keep in mind assuming its a 3way pot, the pat bluffer would be risking 2.50 to win 3.75, so it doesn't even need to work 1/2 the time to be profitable.

And how often as an open raiser do you end up with a hand you are willing to call a patbluff from someone you don't really suspect it from? Rarely.

So while I agree that its probably not applicable in this situation (although it may be), writing it off completely might not be that good an idea either.

[flafishy]

It would be a decent play in pot limit draw where you have better tools to bluff with. But not so much in .50/1 limit -- certainly not unless you're HU with a known weak tighty.

[bigpooch]

Okay, I'll spill the beans of what I think in this spot!

I think it's an easy fold, but if somebody did call in this
spot, he would have to think of good reasons to play the
hand based on his opponents and the future EV if the hand
ever were to make it to the showdown in this situation. I
think if you call, it's not extremely terrible, and in some
rare situations, it may be even +EV, but most of the time,
you shouldn't think this would be a profitable call in the
long run.


PLUSSES:

a) Implied odds

Normally, players think of pot odds, but since this is low
limit, you have a point: you will likely get paid off if you
hit and if the utg raiser "newghetto" or the cold-caller in
the hijack "jimmybluffit" are fairly aggressive, you may
sometimes win two big bets or more on the hand if you make
your flush. You shouldn't be just thinking of pot odds and
if the big blind is fairly loose and will defend with just
about any pair, the predraw pot might average just above $4.
Sure, it's not the $5.22 for pot odds, but you'll get it
back when you get paid off (so you hope!).

b) Making aces

Sure, it's unlikely that you'll win by pairing aces, but is
it? If the utg raised with KK and the cutoff is terrible
and will cold call with QQ or JJ, you'll sometimes win with
just AA when it gets checked around. Admittedly, this is
somewhat small.

c) Future Image, even if the call is -EV for the hand

The "predraw hand selection police" might deduce that you
were giving some extra action, or maybe you were steaming
and it may somehow add to your FUTURE EV. Maybe if you hit
your hand, one or more of your opponents may steam some
extra chips your way: for the two main contenders, you have
position on one and the other is neutral (raiser is at the
exact opposite seat at the table for all future hands). But
many of your opponents won't even think that you were making
a "mistake" anyway since they would have played your hand
without much thought! Besides, at these limits, do your
opponents really pay much attention?

d) Bluffing

You might be able to bluff if the utg and hijack just
have one pair. This depends on whether they will pay off
with AA or KK. This also runs contrary to a) but since it
is low limit, your bluff probably won't have +EV.


MINUSES

e) No guarantees

You make your hand, but so what? You can still run into a
boat! If the utg doesn't raise with less than AA, you have
an ugly feature in your hand: an ACE! This makes it much
less likely (about 1/2) as normal that he holds AA, so he
could have two pairs or better, and when he does, it's not
impossible for him to make a boat. Similarly, what about
the cold caller? If he isn't a loose player, he could be
cold calling with two pairs and not just AA, so you could
be against two players, each having at least two pairs and
there are also the blinds that might make a hand (it's
admittedly rare that one of the blinds will make a boat).
When you raise with your made flush, you will sometimes pay
back quite a lot when you see that third bet on the end and
it's not as insignificant as some people may think. Sure,
more often you get the pay-off and so there are implied
odds, but there are some ugly scenarios when you connect and
still lose!

f) No fixed cost

Sure, it's unlikely that the blinds will wake up with a real
hand and 3-bet predraw. Or is it? The small blind only has
a mere two big bets left. Has he had enough pummelling
today? Maybe this is the hand that he's going to reraise
just to make everyone (including himself and you!) pay. You
might win a big pot, or (more likely) pay 3 small bets or
a mere 4 small bets to draw to your "beautiful hand" - it's
not "rocket science" to the utg or hijack that the small
blind could have "squat" and they may be more than happy to
oblige putting the small blind all-in!

g) Pyrrhic victory

This scenario isn't unlikely when you make your hand: none
of the blinds defend, and you have a pot that is only a mere
$3.60 (rake, remember?). The two other players check and
fold to you, so you contributed $1 to net a mere $2.60 and
the "pot odds police" are snickering!


What to play?
--------------

What draw can you play? Any gutshot straight flush draw
does not have pot odds to play: $3.92 is needed in the pot
predraw, but after you call, there is only $3.60 in the pot.
Of course, we would all be right in calling here, because
now it's a lot closer and so implied odds come into play.

Change the scenario to this: utg raises, hijack and cutoff
BOTH cold call and you have the same hand. You need $5.22
predraw for pot odds, but if the blinds aren't in, there's
only $4.55, so this is MUCH better than $3.60, but I suspect
even then, it may only be a barely positive EV decision to
call, and I wouldn't ridicule a player for folding here.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
c) Future Image, even if the call is -EV for the hand

The "predraw hand selection police" might deduce that you
were giving some extra action, or maybe you were steaming
and it may somehow add to your FUTURE EV. Maybe if you hit
your hand, one or more of your opponents may steam some
extra chips your way: for the two main contenders, you have
position on one and the other is neutral (raiser is at the
exact opposite seat at the table for all future hands). But
many of your opponents won't even think that you were making
a "mistake" anyway since they would have played your hand
without much thought! Besides, at these limits, do your
opponents really pay much attention?

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think you have done this one justice - when you hit and get to show what you did pre-draw your opponents are definately going to hate you - there will be a significant increase in the value of picking up 2 pair and 3 of a kind (when you will be drawing 1) after this hand

it may be that your opponents will merely think you did a normal thing because thats what they do - i would agree that you shouldnt be trying to create an image based on the assumption your opponents have a clue - personally i like to blend in to the background by looking as lazy, crazy, and greedy pre-draw as possible

[ QUOTE ]
e) No guarantees

You make your hand, but so what? You can still run into a
boat! If the utg doesn't raise with less than AA, you have
an ugly feature in your hand: an ACE! This makes it much
less likely (about 1/2) as normal that he holds AA, so he
could have two pairs or better, and when he does, it's not
impossible for him to make a boat. Similarly, what about
the cold caller? If he isn't a loose player, he could be
cold calling with two pairs and not just AA, so you could
be against two players, each having at least two pairs and
there are also the blinds that might make a hand (it's
admittedly rare that one of the blinds will make a boat).
When you raise with your made flush, you will sometimes pay
back quite a lot when you see that third bet on the end and
it's not as insignificant as some people may think. Sure,
more often you get the pay-off and so there are implied
odds, but there are some ugly scenarios when you connect and
still lose!

[/ QUOTE ]

your reverse implied odds are tiny

[ QUOTE ]
f) No fixed cost

Sure, it's unlikely that the blinds will wake up with a real
hand and 3-bet predraw. Or is it? The small blind only has
a mere two big bets left. Has he had enough pummelling
today? Maybe this is the hand that he's going to reraise
just to make everyone (including himself and you!) pay. You
might win a big pot, or (more likely) pay 3 small bets or
a mere 4 small bets to draw to your "beautiful hand" - it's
not "rocket science" to the utg or hijack that the small
blind could have "squat" and they may be more than happy to
oblige putting the small blind all-in!

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you have this one on the wrong side of the equation - on balance if one of the blinds 3 bets and its called back to you although your only getting 3/1 pot odds needing about 4/1 that extra bet is clearly +EV because your implied odds which we all agree are crucial to this hand just got a lot bigger

[ QUOTE ]
g) Pyrrhic victory

This scenario isn't unlikely when you make your hand: none
of the blinds defend, and you have a pot that is only a mere
$3.60 (rake, remember?). The two other players check and
fold to you, so you contributed $1 to net a mere $2.60 and
the "pot odds police" are snickering!

[/ QUOTE ]

like i said in my last post although this will appen its an unlikely parlay of events especially at this limit

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[DOMIT]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold, and from the SB as well.

From the BB, at 2.75-1, it's not as bad as it is from any other position because you could pair your ace and that might be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

From the BB you're getting 5.5 to 1.. insta-call (you're only in for 1/2 bet.. u can't count your blind that's already in there, it's part of the pot).

[flafishy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold, and from the SB as well.

From the BB, at 2.75-1, it's not as bad as it is from any other position because you could pair your ace and that might be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

From the BB you're getting 5.5 to 1.. insta-call (you're only in for 1/2 bet.. u can't count your blind that's already in there, it's part of the pot).

[/ QUOTE ]

Either I've lost track of the situation under discussion or you can't be correct. Can you reconstruct how you figure you're getting 5.5:1?

[Notjitsu]

Original raiser puts in 2 small bets. Caller puts in 2 small bets. SB puts in .5 small bets. You already put in 1 small bet. And its one small bet to you.

[flafishy]

I'm really confused. OP had flush draw OTB, as far as I can tell.

[DOMIT]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really confused. OP had flush draw OTB, as far as I can tell.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, you are correct for the OP.

I really was replying to the ppl trying to state that you don't have odds to draw out of the blind. In this situation w/ a raise AND a call, yes, you do (were you the BB). You only need one cold-caller of that raise to have odds.
(who knows, maybe I got confused myself, but I thought this is was some were advocating, to fold even from the BB in this type of situation.)