|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
Mh if he only does this with one overpair it would be breakeven.
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.303% 40.69% 01.62% 6042 240.00 { AhAs } Hand 1: 57.697% 56.08% 01.62% 8328 240.00 { JJ, 66-55, 33 } |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
You dont think JJ should be heavily discounted as it probably will 3b pf? Also in that range, youre then including 44, I really think its one or the other, either one overpair or 44 and what Im saying is 44 is much more likely than an overpair.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
Ya ofc, but then just replace JJ with TT, as long as he does with one kind of overpair itd be breakeven shove.
Also JJ might not necessarily 3bet here as I raised UTG. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
Take out 44 from there then and stove it just so you have an idea what the equity would look like if this is TT often enough. What Im getting at is that very few villains will take this line with an overpair. I really dont think this villain is one of those who would do this with a pair. Look at his AF, its not very high by any means, and his vpip and pfr are fairly conservative. If this guy has TT I would be shocked.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
44 isnt in stove in my post, but admittedly the more i think about it the more this line looks like a set, still if he does this with an overpair its breakeven. Just such a marginal spot :S.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
Sorry I misread it, but you should add in 56. Someone with a vpip of 20 is still conservative but likes to play sc's.
I am making his range a little wider and now adding in 54 as well since if we think he could do this with 44, he could also with 54. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 19,800 games 0.001 secs 19,800,000 games/sec Board: 5s 6c 3d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 33.626% 32.32% 01.31% 6399 259.00 { AhAs } Hand 1: 66.374% 65.07% 01.31% 12883 259.00 { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, 44, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 5c4c, 5d4d, 5h4h } --- |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
But he called in the sb so he will be oop, if we assume he isnt positionally aware hes also more prone to go spazztarded with Overpairs id guess.
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 40.452% 38.84% 01.61% 6537 271.00 { AhAs } Hand 1: 59.548% 57.94% 01.61% 9751 271.00 { JJ, 66-55, 33, 6c5c, 6d5d, 6h5h } THis would make it 40% equity and thus breakeven? |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
I have seen TT in this spot 3 times in the last week (2/3 were vs TAG). I think 99/88 are rarer but I've seen 99 take this line once that I can remember.
I agree JJ will most likely 3b PF but put yourself in villains shoes w TT. Say hero is unkown to villain he may reason that hero has 77-99 often enough for him to play TT for stacks on the flop. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
Thanks for the feedback guys, im off to bed now, will post results tmrw(altough they dont really matter [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
No, I really wouldnt convince myself I should play for stacks here with TT unless hero seems like an idiot to me.
|
|
|