@@@ Official Saturday CFB Thread @@@

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Moving these from the other thread...


louisville @ CT +3.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u


nc state @ ECU -4 (-120) 1.8u/1.5u
FLA ATLANTIC -6.5 (-110) @ ul lafayette 1.65u/1.5u
CINCI -9.5 (-110) @ pitt 1.65u to win 1.5u
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +17 (-110) @ clemson 1.65u/1.5u
florida @ KENTUCKY +7 (-110) 1.65u/1.5u
usc @ ND +19 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
north texas @ TROY -17.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.ou
colorado st @ UNLV -2.5 (-105) 1.05u/1.0u
BOWLING GREEN +5.5 (-105) @ kent 1.05u/1.0u

YTD 8-2 +7.025u

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Adding miami (fla) @ FLORIDA ST -5.5 (+104) 1.0u/1.04u

[Gordon Scott]

All one unit plays unless noted.

USF -2 2 units
utes +3
USC -13.5
Bama TN under 56
Miss +5.5
UF -6.5
Miss State +24.5 4 units
Ark State +3
Troy -21.5
MSU +19

Auburn +10 2 units Tubby is a big game coach and I hate team's coming off 3 ot games.

Miss State could be the next big upset this year. Someone please tell me why WV is getting this much love when they have beat one decent Maryland team and a bunch of dogs. I'll wait before betting for your input but this is my 1st 4 unit bet of the year if someone can't talk me down off the ledge.

GS

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
There was a great post at sbrforum with the winning % of both home and road dogs from 1985 to now. Road dogs from +21-+26.5 win 4.6% of the time, thus needing +2084 to make it break even.

I'm considering adding some $ to my bankroll to experiment with it. Basically, I'd put 1 unit on ever ML dog edge I find every week (this week there are like 25), but I haven't added the new bankroll mobnies.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, those will actually understate the potential chances of an underdog as they come from before the 85 scholly limits. I'm pretty sure that even though the spreads might be the same, the distribution of possible outcomes likely includes more upsets these days. I don't have any proof for that, but I think it could be amassed.

[pirateboy]

So, basically, the edges would be even better given that variable?

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
So, basically, the edges would be even better given that variable?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
So, basically, the edges would be even better given that variable?

[/ QUOTE ]

For the dogs, yes. Why restrict your plays to only dogs though? We should try to get some more detailed info on this. I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] MLs and think there is maybe more money in them. The lines seem to swing more drastically. That chart only breaks it down into groups, but there is obv. a big difference between the ML on a 3 point dog and 6.5. Yet they are grouped the same. I also wonder if there is a correlation between winning % and how early it is in the season. It would seem that huge faves early in the year might be over-inflated based on the previous year's performance.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Miss State could be the next big upset this year. Someone please tell me why WV is getting this much love when they have beat one decent Maryland team and a bunch of dogs.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. preseason expectations
2. margin of victory
3. they have actually played a very respectable schedule thus far

The most important factor is margin of victory. When you average their game scores (including their loss), you come up with 42.8-17.2. Taking one game as an example, there is certainly no shame in blowing out ECU 48-7.

Also, their schedule has been nowhere near as weak as you have hinted at.

I am not on either side here. I am just explaining why WVU has a much higher power rating, and why the spread is so large.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
USF+1
Kentucky +5, both 1u
Kentucky +7, 1u

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Missou -3.5/-105

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
That's great information to have. Do you have a link by chance?

Nevermind, found it. It's like the 2nd post on the front page right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suck...linky please?

[pirateboy]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...underdogs.aspx