Official Saturday CFB Thread

[Post-Oak]

From the other thread:

tcu @ STANFORD +6.5 (-105) 1.575u to win 1.5u Sportsbook
ucf @ SOUTH FLORIDA -11.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u Sportsbook
smu @ SOUTHERN MISS -9 (-105) 0.63u to win 0.6u Sportsbook

And adding:

AUBURN +3 (-105) @ arkansas 1.05u to win 1u MB
EAST CAROLINA +3 (+103) @ utep 1.5u to win 1.54u MB

I'm leaning towards Air Force. We'll see what the line does tomorrow. It was a Dr. Bob pick, and now I can't find anything better than -3 -110.

YTD: 3-2 +0.88 units

[milenky]

Has anyone capped the l'ville/cincy game? any thoughts.
thanks!

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Has anyone capped the l'ville/cincy game? any thoughts.
thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts: Bad matchup for UL. Cincy has a D that can shut down 'ville's offense. UL needs to win games 38-35 obv. because they can't shut down anyone. I can't see them scoring points like that @ Cincy. A better matchup for them would be @ Kentucky where they played earlier...a team that has most of their talent on offense that UL can put up a big number against and hope it holds up. Cincy has a solid D and pretty much any team is going to put up 30+ on UL's D. The kind of problems they have on defense can't really be solved during the season IMO. They are just consistently awful.

Having said all that, I really wish the line would drop under 10 because I've seen a few people on this board and others take the points and UL. Is 10 points enough? Not sure. I def. wouldn't be betting the Cards though.

[bills217]

FWIW (which isn't much), Phil Steele is picking Louisville to upset Cincy, as well as Mississippi State to upset Tennessee.

I don't know if it's LSU being that public or people being down on Kentucky, but seemingly all the prognosticators are on LSU to rout Kentucky. Spread is 9.5 - vaguely reminds me of Arizona State/Washington State last week. Kentucky has won 10 of 11 at Commonwealth Stadium, had extra time to prepare after the Thursday night loss to SC which they are still smarting from, and LSU just pulled out one of the epic regular season games in quite some time in college football. Watch out.

(My only play on the game at the moment is Under 54.5.)

[Austiger]

Every week I think I'm going to go light, and end up betting 25+ games.

Navy/Pitt Over 53 -108 WIN
Navy/Pitt 2H/Over 28.5 +100 WIN
Wake +6 -108 WIN
FSU/Wake Under 43.5 -105 LOSS
2H/FSU PK -120 LOSS
Hawaii -16.5 -104 LOSS
Hawaii/SJSU 2H/Over 28 +100 WIN
Wash +12.5 -110
Miami -2 -110
Baylor +25.5 -110
S Carolina -6.5 -110
Illinois -3.5 -116
Auburn/Ark Over 49 -110
Georgia -6.5 -110
Mississippi +7 -120
LSU -9 -116
Arizona +21.5 -110
Virginia -3 -101
UNLV +11 -110
Michigan -5 -110
Kent +31 -110
Duke +14.5 -110
Nebraska -3 -120
Stanford +6.5 -115
Tennessee -7 -101
Cincy -10.5 +112

MLs:
Navy +163 WIN
Hawaii -662 EASY WIN
Georgia -253
Tennessee -255
Tx A&M +353
Stanford +208
Auburn +137

I know I said I wasn't betting the Auburn game, but I'm put a homer pick on them. With Tuberville's record in close games and Auburn's kicking game I don't mind passing on the +3 in favor of the ML.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
probably a small week for me

I'm out of town and might not have time to get to do all the analysis I want

[/ QUOTE ]

you better get down on our favorite mizzou prop, its looking really juicy this week... +170 for $300 max at bodog, and +160 for $300 max at the greek

[/ QUOTE ]

omg
Mizzou to score first @ Oklahoma +170 bet 3u to win 5.1u

Mizzou's first drive alone is better than +170...OMG
look at OU's defense trying to stop Colorado late
OK...they held Chase and the boys pretty well last year, but Mizzou's offense is slightly better and OU's pass defense looked suspect when it counted.

[milenky]

thanks much for the input guys.

[Austiger]

Mizzou to score first @ Oklahoma +170 to win 1.75 units

Thanks for the heads-up fellas.

[bills217]

I am offering $200 of Louisville/Cincy Under 65.5 +105 at Matchbook if anyone is interested.

[MyTurn2Raise]

early slate: no happy with 3 home faves, but the numbers say there is just too huge of an edge--big fears
1) V Tech cannot score enough off Duke as the true freshman isn't lighting anyone up.
2) S Florida's speed defense gets bulldozed by UCF's power rush attack.
3) Michigan struggles against Purdue's spread despite the lack of a QB run threat from Purdue.

V Tech -14 v Duke bet 2.55u to win 2.5u
S Florida -11.5 v UCF bet 2.55u to win 2.5u
Michigan -5 v Purdue bet 2.2u to win 2u
Baylor +27 @ Kansas bet 2.2u to win 2u
Syracuse +17.5 v Rutgers bet 1.08u to win 1u

Purdue/Michigan u57.5 bet 1.07u to win 1u
Minnesota/N'Western u65.5 bet 1.02u to win 1u
V Tech/Duke o45 bet 1.04u to win 1u
Okie St/Nebraska o62.5 bet 1.1u to win 1u
Bama/Ole Miss o48.5 bet 1.04u to win 1u