Teasing NFL With NCAAF

[Post-Oak]

Let's assume that, using Basic Strategy Teasers, you can win the NFL side of this teaser 73+% of the time.

Shouldn't teasing that NFL side with a -6.5 NCAAF favorite result in a +EV teaser (at a book which pays even money)?

Let's take a look at the numbers. 5Dimes has 2 NCAAF games this week that have -6.5 lines:

Tulane +6½ -110 +225
Army -6½ -110 -265

Oklahoma State +6½ -110 +220
Texas A&M -6½ -110 -260

The important thing to look at here is the moneylines. These games are handicapped as having a fair value moneyline of +245/-245 and +240/-240 (looking at Pinnacle we get +/-244 and +/-230).

Let's take Army -6.5 as our example then. If we assume the moneyline is efficient/accurate, then Army has a 70.588% (24/34) chance of winning this game.

0.73 X 0.70588 = 51.53%

Betting this teaser at even money looks to be a +EV bet (a 3.06% edge in this case).

Looking at this, I am not so sure that NCAAF teasers are quite as horrible as people are making them out to be. Unless there is an inefficiency in NCAAF moneylines for -6.5 spreads which has not been exploited yet...

The strategy here would of course be to look for favorable moneyline games (for example -6.5 -275), where the line is assumed to be sharp, and tease them with BST NFL sides at books that pay even money for teasers.

Edit: Not sure why I rounded down the fair moneyline from -245 to -240 for Army, but the win pct would of course just be even higher.