NFL RSW wagers v Pinny today

[NajdorfDefense]

Well, the regular season is coming up. Let's review the RSW wagers I made vs where Pinny is right now. Most bets were based on my own analysis [which is not given here, only some brief thoughts], some came from ideas/posts by King Yao, and other people I know and me line shopping a lot:

ATL u7.5 +110 v Cris [no pinny line] u6.5 -105.
took this solely based on Vick-jail factor. Lookin' good.

Det o6 -110/u6.5 0c middle v Pin o6.5 -146. Perhaps shoulda kept the o6, but really like odds of a middle there as long as Millen works Motown.

STL o7.5 -110 v Pin -153. One of the few overs I really liked.
Oak o5 -130 v Pin -158. Talked about many places.
KC o7 -125 v Pin o7.5 +133. Nobody seems to like the Chiefs, but with LJ back I find it hard to see them going 6-10, after all Cutler is unproven in Denver, and they still can beat Oak 2x. So a bit of a hedge with these 2.

PHL o9.5 100, Pin +109. Market slightly better now but essentially not moved much. My homer pick, altho of course I think Iggles win 10-11 games in weak NFC with healthy #5.

Was u7.5 -115, Pin -135. Not a Campbell fan, so far so good.
Bal u9.5 +105, Pin -100. Even steven.
SFO u7.5 +145, Pin u8 -114. Alex Smith still unproven, Gore coming off shoulder surgery and broken hand. We'll see.

SDG u11 +100, Pin u10.5 +116. Getting the push at 11 at even odds makes this a very good bet imho.
Ten u7 -120, Pin -157. Probably the first futures bet I immediately liked, and I'm a VY fan. 8 wins?
Mia u7.5 -110, Pin -150. Dolfins are a sh!!show. Again, hard to see 8 wins playing NEP and NYJ 2x.

Cin u9.5 +105, pin u9.0 +121. Loving the hook here. Cinci had a really bad offseason, no Henry, injuries, etc.
Dal u9.5 -115, pin -129. Small sized here only.
NO o9 -125, pin o9.5 -110. Someone in the NFC has to win some games, other than PHL I like NO best I suppose.

Indy u11 -125, pin u10.5 -122. Colts lost some starters and Rhodes, everyone will be up for them this year even more so, again love getting the half-game here, Colts may be 11-4/10-5 final week with nothing to play for as well.

Small under bets on GBP/ARI at better or same odds. Thinking about u10 on Bears. Driver hurt certainly not good for GBP, altho even if he's 100% I still like the widely-talked about under here.

So, some $$$ locked up for a few months, but I got in ahead of 90% of line moves so that makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. I posted about the Ten, STL, and Was lines before.

Now, if I can just go undefeated like the King did last year, I'll be all set!

[TomG]

Here are my RSW wagers FWIW...

Pittsburgh Regular Season Wins Under 8.5 +145
St. Louis Regular Season Wins Over 7.5 -110
Cincinnati Regular Season Wins Under 9.5 +105
Washington Regular Season Wins Under 7.5 -115
New York G Regular Season Wins Under 8.5 -140
Minnesota Regular Season Wins Under 7.0 -115
Detroit Regular Season Wins Under 6.5 +110
Chicago Regular Season Wins Under 10.5 -155

Middle
Jacksonville Regular Season Wins Over 9.0 -110
Jacksonville Regular Season Wins Under 9.5 -110

Middle
Baltimore Regular Season Wins Over 9.0 -140
Baltimore Regular Season Wins Under 9.5 +105

[AllinDan]

I'm on

PHI NFC +800
GBP NFC North +750 and +600
TAM NFC South +700
DAL to NOT win NFC East -185
MIA u4 wins in first 6 games -128 (LOL)
MIA u7.5 -130
CHI u10.5 -140 (this one set up the MIA 6 games bet, see BBV thread)
KC u7.5 -110
STL u7.5 +120
NOR u9 +115
SFO NFC West +325
JAX o9 -105
TAM o7.5 +115
SDG u10.5 +120

Had a bunch more plays I wanted to get in on but then I unexpectedly hooked it all away.

[bevo_stevo]

It looks like you did pretty good. I always wonder whether I placed my bets before or after the idiots when the line moves in my favor, but hopefully everything works out well for you.

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NO o9 -125, pin o9.5 -110. Someone in the NFC has to win some games, other than PHL I like NO best I suppose.


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I recall Yao blathering on at some length on his blog about a handful of NO under bets at 9.0 (Weighing the Odds). My model had them somewhere around 9.1-9.2 wins at the time, so hopefully we'll both be right.

[ QUOTE ]
Ten u7 -120, Pin -157. Probably the first futures bet I immediately liked, and I'm a VY fan. 8 wins?


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Blasphemy! My algorithm says yes, but my heart says no.

[NajdorfDefense]

Yeah, I'm curious to see if I end up with a lot of pushes on Ten, SDG, NO, Indy.