Bluff attempt -- good or bad?

Pokey · #1 10-25-2006, 01:04 AM

I've been gradually trying to increase the frequency with which I abuse weak-tight players. Today I had a particularly severe example, and I wanted to know if this looks reasonable or not.

Villain is 38/16/1.7 over 1300+ hands. I haven't really gotten out of line in this session. I've been playing about a 29/18 game, but the only time I went all-in this session I had KK. (three-bet big preflop and called by 64s, all-in on a flop of 764 -- bastard. Opponent was not this hand's villain.)

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Pokey: $101.10
CO: $100
Button: $199.80
SB: $194.95
BB: $133.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Pokey is UTG with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Pokey raises to $4, CO calls, 3 folds.

Good for a call, good for a raise.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($9.5, 2 players)
Pokey bets $6, CO calls.

Bottom pair, but TOP KICKER! Meh, call it a c-bet.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($21.5, 2 players)
Pokey bets $15, CO calls.

I feel that I'm only winning this one with relentless aggression, since my hand strength is pretty cruddy.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($51.5, 2 players)
Pokey bets $75 (putting villain all-in)....

All the draws missed, and even a T has to be afraid of a big river bet when that K falls. Unless villain has a hand better than a pair of kings, I'd say he's likely to fold. That's going to happen more than 40% of the time here, right?

Right??

Claunchy · #2 10-25-2006, 01:09 AM

I don't have a problem with it in a vacuum, but bear in mind that when you run laggier than normal, you can expect to get called down light sometimes, even if you have actually had good cards.

tubasteve · #3 10-25-2006, 01:09 AM

Bet more on the flop. I'd give up on the turn. Why do you say he is weak tight?

smellmuth · #4 10-25-2006, 01:12 AM

this board is somewhat connected. give up turn.

SABR42 · #5 10-25-2006, 01:19 AM

I would bet about $8 on the flop, and check behind on the turn.

mikechops · #6 10-25-2006, 01:44 AM

I like to have an idea of what hand I'm representing. On this flop with either AT or JJ+, I'd bet more than 6.

I can see you getting looked up on the river. If I'm a villain with say AT, I'd be wondering why so much? If you had a monster, wouldn't you want to get paid?

Also, you need him to fold better hands 60% of the time. I'd just check and hope he had either a flush or straight draw.

thedustbustr · #7 10-25-2006, 01:51 AM

pokey - on a board this wet, as you pointed out, a draw makes up a large part of his hand range. you beat a draw.

i dont hate the turn bet, but i would probably ch turn and ch river if he is a nit. the pot will find its way into your stack more than you expect.

gimmetheloot · #8 10-25-2006, 01:55 AM

I really hate this.

ColdSteel · #9 10-25-2006, 02:00 AM

You hate the hand or what DB said?

orange · #10 10-25-2006, 03:01 AM

I don't really like the turn bet much. I would probably check turn.