Help me fold stuff

[Dan BRIGHT]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop he's almost splitting any money that goes in against a big A with a FD 50/50. He's making 1/3 of a bet / bet that goes in against something like QQ with a FD. He's getting pumelled when he's re-raised by a better hand. Don't raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.094 secs 10,531 games/sec

Board: 7h 6h Kh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.2424 % 54.24% 00.00% { KcQd }
Hand 2: 45.7576 % 45.76% 00.00% { AhJs }


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ANYWAYS ->

We have 2 options. Suppose they are both precisely the same +ev in the long run in a vacuum. Then does it matter which one we choose? If they are equal, then no.

If we dont play in a vacuum, and one of the options increases the ev of another similar, yet different, type of hand, then does it not follow that we should choose the option that does so?

[The Bryce]

Are we on the same page here? We make basically no money by raising the flop against an over and flush draw, very little money by raising the flop against a flush draw, and lose tons of money by raising the flop against a better hand or knocking out a dead hand.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]

ANYWAYS ->

We have 2 options. Suppose they are both precisely the same +ev in the long run in a vacuum. Then does it matter which one we choose? If they are equal, then no.

If we dont play in a vacuum, and one of the options increases the ev of another similar, yet different, type of hand, then does it not follow that we should choose the option that does so?

[/ QUOTE ]
Your two options that are precisely the same +ev in the long run will not be the exactly the same +ev on the next street. If your EV takes a "big" jump depending on the next card it may be a good idea to play the current street passive and re-evaluate things and so on, but you already know this.

[Dan BRIGHT]

[ QUOTE ]
Are we on the same page here? We make basically no money by raising the flop against an over and flush draw, very little money by raising the flop against a flush draw, and lose tons of money by raising the flop against a better hand or knocking out a dead hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
-> 55% against an over and a fd isnt very little money, thats a huge edge. Thats the edge the we cap the flop with straight-flush draws on.
-> If we raise against a flush draw, we are even further ahead than against an over + fd.
-> The "dead" hands will calls us down regardless thinking that we are having fun with a mere flush draw.


If we raise the flop against a better hand, they will 3bet us and we will say "ok lets get to showdown". I wouldnt be at all surprised if we have the best hand here at the moment and are favoured to win b/c of the generally lighter capping standards of shorthanded plya.

[The Bryce]

You baffle me. Are you saying that we make more than 10% of a bet when money goes in against 12 outs? Because that's certainly not true. A pocket pair with a heart has 11 outs. So like I said: you make almost no money. When you have the worst hand though, you're usually going to lose nearly the full value of two bets.