$ 16 bubble play

[Fishing2do]

Danny you might be right that this is a +EV push, purely from a ICM standpoint. I like to look a little bit further then only this hand situation though. And when I look further into the tourney, I see plenty of opportunity's that might arise that will be not only more EV but also bring with them a lot less Variance.

oh if UTG stack would be spread out amongst 2 extra players at the table... I would be pushing this for sure. But im not going to risk my tourney here, and not even gain that much extra chance of winning it.

[Takeover_inc]

I would fold. We have plenty of chips and i don't see him folding much at all. Even if we do catch him with total garbage he has to call 800 to win a bajillion. Also with his stack size he can easily afford to call of even with crap, and bad players with big stacks at the lower stt levels usuall do.

PLUS if we fold here we are still able to shove into the short stacks bb for the rest of the bubble and EV will prolly make up for what we may or may not be passing up here.

[bighomeytim]

Be more apt to protect from the BB. It's okay to give him credit for catching a hand twice, especially if you're not the shortstack

[bighomeytim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold even if is doing this with atc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, I thought this was a hard one, how can it be good folding even if he is pushing any two?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well yeah but with a raise like that how can you put him on any 2. Remember any little pair will have us crushed ev wise.

[Rek]

If he is pushing ATC then I think you shove here but I disagree slightly with DannyO because I can't see any FE here.

However, just because he did it the hand before doesn't mean he has not had 2 legit hands in a row.

It is very marginal IMO and I may let this orbit go if all I have is the 2 hands of information you quote. This is by no means someone pushing ATC.

[aghasax]

Seems like you have to be sure he opens ATC or folds the bottom part of his range to push here, and only with that read you can't be sure of either of that. Even if he is opening ATC and calls every time ( I think you can count on him folding to your push only a very small percent of times), it's still very marginal.

[flatbroke]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is pushing ATC then I think you shove here but I disagree slightly with DannyO because I can't see any FE here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree, you often see a bully on the bubble, IMO this is an easy push.
[ QUOTE ]

yes he does get my 300 almost every round; im real tight in this situation. Maybe AQs & TT+. Again you got 10bb, assuming you got decent bubble knowledge you can easily wait for better/more clear +EV spots.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO we don't got a lot of time, are we waiting for AA??

am I going blind, I push this all day against aggro

[pricklypete]

If he's been aggro a lot then push. But OP only said he had done this twice so without any other reads, that looks like a fold. If anything I would give him more credit for the second "steal" than the first since he probably know's it looks like he's stealing. If he keeps doing it, sure then push with a moderate hand, but twice in a row does not make him a maniac.

[Scotty_12]

Im happy to get it in here. His range shoulc be massive and we arent guaranteed 3rd if we get into a folding contest (but we are more or less guaranteeing third to ourself or BB)

We dont have alot of FE (if any) but more often than not we are likely to be 60% here, which is enough for me to go for the double up and become a commanding 2nd in chips.

I think one option is to flat pre and shove any flop (maybe check A and J high flops if you think he'll bet) he might be more likely to lay down his garbage there and you take away his chance to see 2 more cards

[Luisma]

[ QUOTE ]
Some people here are giving really really horrible advice. If he's an aggressive player, opening 35% and calling the all in with 20% or so, this is an auto-instant push. +1.68% on SNGWiz. If he's raising top 35% and calling top 25% still a push. If he is raising 40% and calling 32% (any broadway, any ace, any pp, any suited K), it is still +EV to push. Wow if he is raising ATC you are out of your godamm mind to fold. Awful awful awful advice here, wow. If your read is that he is a frequent stealer, easy push OP

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hes not folding here gettin 1:4.5+ pot odds even if hes stealing w ATC, so you better count this like a push from him