5/10 vs AoA- Tiny Range, Big Decision....

[wdead]

Using Bayesian logic we should fold because even though he can obly have X hand some tiny percentage of the time in actuality, his actions indicate he does INDEED have that hand. Using psycological reasoning we should call because if he fold 99 here he can c/r 100% of his range profitably.

Just being a nit.

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
Using Bayesian logic we should fold because even though he can obly have X hand some tiny percentage of the time in actuality, his actions indicate he does INDEED have that hand. Using psycological reasoning we should call because if he fold 99 here he can c/r 100% of his range profitably.

Just being a nit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, just because he can or can't do that with 100% of his range profitably doesn't really mean we should counter that by stacking off with any pair. If he checkraises a lot of flops then that's one thing, but if he never bluffs then pretty easy flop fold.

In villain's shoes I have air or a draw a good amount, but if I decide to play TT/JJ tricky this is a flop I'd c/r all day and get it in.

[DCal Zone]

fyi, I have seen the new and improved AoA just call here with QQ. TT, JJ, QQ are all in his range. I don't think he'd check-raise this flop with air against your utg raise. I also think he'd either call or fold worse pp's. This definitely seems like a fold.

Also: How annoying was it the first few times you played with AoA before you realized that he changed. I was so pissed when I would snap call AQ allin preflop expecting to be way ahead but he has AA every time now.

[rand]

right, i guess i was confused bc bayesian logic, as i understand it should (practically) only apply to our turn decision and i thought we were talking about the flop

...is there a turn card for this hand? what are peoples lines?
for me it just comes down to how often hell double barrel bluff you plus how the turn hits his range

[BobboFitos]

2. Dubness

hahaha fold pf vs him, kid doesnt lose!