NL200 - Tough Hand, deep, vs TAG

[RyanCMU]

I'm not at my computer right now, so no PT, and I'm typing this out from memory, so sorry if the formatting isn't as pretty as usual...Hand takes place at Stars NL200.

Villain in this hand was a TAGish player about 14/10/3 if I remember correctly. We had no real history w/ each other, I had probably 3bet him a few times, but no significant pots. He got his stack by getting in AA vs KK ai pf. I have gotten my stack by showing down quads a few hands earlier. I had not yet seen villain c/r a flop where he was the preflop agressor, his cbet % is relativly high as well. Oh, and CO in this hand is a pretty big donk (35/10/1 ish).

Anyways onto the hand...

Villain ($400)
RyanCMU ($450)
CO ($170)

Pre-flop
Villain opens in MP to $8, CO calls, I call on button w/ 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], both blinds fold.

Flop ($26ish) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain checks, CO checks, I bet $20ish, Villain c/r's to $60ish, CO folds, I call.

Turn ($145ish) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain checks, I check.

River ($145ish) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain checks, I bet $100, Villain c/r's all-in to $332, I fold.

On the river, its $232 more back to me to call his river c/r. Who folds here, who calls? Does anyone not bet the river?

Would anyone have played the flop or turn differently?

My thinking was, that a 3bet on the flop looks very very strong and the only hands that are going to give me further action are hands that have me crushed. Especially, considering he out of character c/r'd the flop instead of 3betting. And I really don't think he is going to get in 200bbs on the flop w/ AK. However, if you do advocate 3betting the flop, please explain why you would and what your plan would be for the turn if called? And what your plan is facing a 4bet shove?

I check the turn through because, if he was bluffing on the flop or making a play w/ a marginal hand, the A is a great card to keep bluffing at for him, and his turn check is very confusing?

Furthermore, if we have 99, does this change anything? Maybe then w/ 99 we could 3bet this flop sometimes? Would we call the river c/r if we held 99?

[the_rookie]

There is one hand you beat AK. But why would he check Top/Top on the turn? AA or KK makes more sense and possibly 99. If he did have a better set then we can't fault him for slowplaying on this type of board.

But if he had AK on the river, why would he open himself up by c/r. He can not believe he'll get paid off by any hand he beats right? So I think he has us beat, but in the heat of the moment I probably make the call and just curse the pokergods for set over set.

But through simple logic it does seem we are beat here.

[TheProdigy]

Ok, so my plan:

I would call the flop, but not because I was scared, but because I wanted to extract more value from AK and from K9. On the turn I bet out one of two ways, according to the villain. Sometimes I try to bet out like $80, making it somewhat small and kinda looking weak so maybe he will c-r again. He looks like he will def c-r AK anyways, and K9 is scared now but may just call down.

The river is crap, but oh well. It looks like he may have AK, K9s, etc. I dunno why he wouldn't bet out but if he has a weaker two pair here he may for some reason unknown to me want some fold equity. Regardless it seems like this can be so many hands

IMO with a 13/10 player he bets out with 99 and/or KK on the river, if not the turn. Just in my experience the c-r on the river after a turn check-through seems stupid for any 13/10 player to make with a huge hand, and in my mind, when the line he takes makes no sense, there is usually a reason for it.

I make the call and think I am good here a high % of the time, just because there are certain ways 99/KK play this, and this is not one of those traditional ways. If he is very good and realizes there are no draws etc and is just that tricky then so be it, but checking the turn and river by him is horrid if he does have it, so note it and stack the [censored] out of him next time.

[RyanCMU]

Prodigy, if we assume villain is a good player, is it nto outside the possibility that he could be checking the river, because he knows that I will prolly only call a river bet w/ most of my range, however, I will certainly bet if checked to, and then sometimes pay off his river c/r because it "makes no sense." Depending on what he puts me on, would this line not be an "Ok" albeit not optimal, but ok, way for him to get stacks in, when otherwise he would only get a small valuebet in on the river?

I think this also brings up an interesting topic/point/question; When is it ok to sacrafice potential $ (in this case a surething value bet getting called) for the hopes of getting someones entire stack by doing something out of the ordinary (his river c/r)?

Conversly, his river c/r could be just that air and he succeded in getting me to fold the winner. However, why would he not fire the turn then? Since its a great card to show continued agression on after his flop c/r?

K9 c/r'ing the river is pretty risky as much of my range beats that hand, I doubt a decent player would want to turn a made hand into a bluff here?

Seems like a thinking villain would be b/f'ing most of his marginal hands here on the river, hell even AK sometimes. Because he should be concerned with getting that money from teh VB there, and he probably shouldnt want to turn a hand w/ showdown value into a bluff here. Idk, b/f'ing A9, K9, AK just seems like such a better play. Then c/r'ing. I think his c/r on the river means either AA/KK/99 or total random spewage, leaning moreso to the sets. I mean w/ a set he doesn't mind building a huge pot and he prolly feels its the only way to get stacks in given how the hand has played out? However, w/ his more marginal hands he knows that if the moeny goes in w/ him c/ring the river and me calling, he usually is in bad shape.


Im just rambling here, most of this probably makes no sense, and im just bored in the library. Probably trying to turn this hand into a much deeper strat post then it really is.

[TheProdigy]

Yea I understand some of your points..

Maybe he checked the turn because he was scared to continue? Maybe not, though. K9 c/r does seem very bad.

But you talk about weird lines to get your money..if he was made, he was obviously c-r the turn too then...uhhh that isn't a good way to get stacks, c-r twice is a very strong move and is a horrible way to get stacks. I think he wasn't c-r the turn. I think the turn scared him, then he just wanted to check down the river, and then when you bet 100 he I guess thought it was weak and went for it.

Otherwise he was planning this the whole way with AK. I just don't see any sets playing it this way, regardless. If he was planning the c-r on the turn then put yourself in his shoes..say you check the turn and hope for a c-r, but the guy check behinds..in your mind you are saying "[censored], god dangit he didn't bet, arggghh I could've got stacks..alright I guess I'll bet out the river and try to get some money" Obviously if an Ace "scared" you, then you wouldn't bet the river either. I think he thought you were scared by the ace and then when you bet out he found it a good time to c-r to try to push you off of it because it is hard to put you on a set here at all.

ok that was a lot of rambling but ya know what i mean

[sccl]

I think you have to add 33 to his range. I think a lot of TAG make this move on the flop with low pocket when they are feeling they get floated too much. Then, they give up on the turn. And because he doesn't think you will check turn with a set, then he is c/raising river for value. He has to think you must have at least mid pair to call is flop c/r.
He is never doing this with 2 pairs.
So his range is very polarized toward sets and air. You have to be good around 29% of the time... mmm I don't know 25% would have been a call... 35% a fold...

If you don't want to play for stack here, what do you think of checking the flop here (I think this line is pretty good sometimes because everytime I feel like bluffing turn and river after checking flop on a board like that, I get called very lightly) ?

[Smart Money]

You're behind here often enough against this type of player to make folding the correct play. I'd be surprised to see anything other than KK if you called.

I think you played the hand well, and I think that he did too (presuming he had KK.)

There's not much worse than flopping a set against a PFR and then have them check an A/K high board! They tend to have either f*ck all or a higher set- and delayed post-flop aggression is always a major concern.

[CalledDownLight]

I like every street. I don't know if I'd have the discipline to fold river in actuality, but definitely believe its the right play.

[RyanCMU]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to add 33 to his range. I think a lot of TAG make this move on the flop with low pocket when they are feeling they get floated too much. Then, they give up on the turn. And because he doesn't think you will check turn with a set, then he is c/raising river for value. He has to think you must have at least mid pair to call is flop c/r.
He is never doing this with 2 pairs.
So his range is very polarized toward sets and air. You have to be good around 29% of the time... mmm I don't know 25% would have been a call... 35% a fold...

If you don't want to play for stack here, what do you think of checking the flop here (I think this line is pretty good sometimes because everytime I feel like bluffing turn and river after checking flop on a board like that, I get called very lightly) ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I never really even considered 33, interesting post.