JJ, 22r final table bubble hand.

[iMsoLucky0]

10 players left, 9 make final table. Obviously this hand is very read dependent so here are my reads:

The first raiser had played a standard TAG game, but had opened up quite a bit once we hit 6 handed. I think this was his 3rd time to open from ep/mp in the last 3 orbits.

I had played with the pusher for probably 2 hours and had seriously seen him play like 5 hands. I think one of the hands was a big hand he played with AJ to get all his chips though (like calling a button shove from the BB), but I don't remember much else cause I was on a few tables. I really felt like he had a super tight range here, like TT(maybe) JJ+, AK, AQ(maybe), so the answer is probably relatively obvious, but I was just curious if anyone could find a call here?


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t8000/t16000
(Ante: t800)
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) iMsoLucky0 is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to t48000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises all-in t154963</font>, SB folds, iMsoLucky0 folds, CO folds.
Uncalled bets: t106963 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: t124000

I usually like never fold hands like this, but this seemed right at the time, but I kind of immediately regretted it.

[Sherman]

Honestly, I have no idea what I would do in the heat of the moment. On paper (or PC if you will) it seems like an easy call/push. CO's opening range is wide. If button has been paying attention and knows his own image, he should expect CO to fold very often (thus his re-raising range should be wider than normal).

However, sometimes the button isn't paying attention and doesn't know his own image and isn't capable of making these kind of plays. I think being online makes this play much tougher than live. On paper, I think it is an easy call. However, I don't think I make it in the heat of the moment either.

[FortunaMaximus]

Not an easy laydown, but your positional advantage's negated here. Gap concept?

Edit: GG me for playing Hero as CO. yeah, Stack sizes for CO and BB are relevant here to correctly assess whether there is merit in calling if you both have the shover covered.

[runout_mick]

Converter deleted stack sizes?

[kniper]

what are the stack sizes?

[nath]

I don't think I ever fold this, because even if he's tight you still have to consider that he's relatively short, so anything he plays is going to have to be all in, and it's 5-handed, and you're getting decent equity with the overlay from CO even against a range as tight as TT+,AQs+,AKo. (it's about 44-56 against you)

I think a more realistic range is something like 88+,AJs+,AQo+, and you're a favorite there.

How many chips you start the hand with?

[stokken]

Fold to cash, skeet to win?
Hmm if he is superthight, fold. But I think Id call it.

Stokken

[FortunaMaximus]

99+, AQ+, and based on your reads, he's not shoving anything that's in the lower end of that range, he might fold 99-TT because of the approaching final table. Has something that's ahead of the original raiser.

So laying down JJ is ok for a TAG. Justifying a call because of the "overlay" when Hero can get to a FT with a decent number of chips is reasonable, but not enough of a reason to call.

Still, I wouldn't discount the 99-TT either based on read of CO. And with CO having a wider range now that he's geared up to accumulate, he's likely to have the significant stack, while Hero may have similar stacks to Button, doesn't have him covered enough to stay in the upper end of the Red Zone, or would bust out with the hand.

Assume this read also includes the realization you're going to call and get it HU the majority of the time, you can justify laying down JJ because even with the overlay, the math's pretty thin.

Goes to find some Bayer instead. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[woodguy]

Since the button has only 9.5BB's I really have a tough time finding a fold here, even if he had been tight previously.

The fact that he came overtop of a previous steal attempt with all his chips w/ AJo makes a call (push) even more mandatory.

Stack sizes are pretty important for you and CO.

Stack sizes please.

Regards,
Woodguy

[gobboboy]

Yeah, need stack sizes for you.

I can't fold this.