Straight on the River

[RainierBob]

I'm most interested in the River betting here.

My opening hand is weakened by a dead queen; on fourth when seat 2 bet, I saw it as a chance to raise out the other hands, which worked.

When Villain caught the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on fifth was unsure whether to continue -- feared an A in the hole, but figured I had reasonalbe chances for the case Q or 2 pair (but wld I have a big enough 2 pair?)

Caught great to make a straight on the river. Should I have raised? Feared Villain might catch a heart flush and reraise. Then I'd be stuck. Need help evaluating River betting in a situation like this.

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (5.20 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___folds

5th Street - (4.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

River - (8.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

Total pot: (10.60 BB)

[adanthar]

#1: Since it's obvious what your hand is, you can fold to a 3 bet
#2: he has eighty billion different hands that are not, in fact, the nuts

[Bartholow]

On 3rd with 3 callers and a dead Q, I might often not bother raising. This is covered in 7CSFAP. But raising can't be too wrong.

4th through 6th all look good to me. If you fold every time someone catches an ace and bets you are giving up too much IMHO.

River is a definite raise. He could have a flush but he could have a lot of payoff hands. I wouldn't even fold to a 3-bet, limit stud is not about making those kinds of laydowns generally.

[RainierBob]

Isn’t the key to evaluating a raise what worse hands he might call with versus what better hands he might call/reraise with?

I think my possible raising hands would be Q’s up or better. Therefore, I think he might well fold worse hands than K’s up. So what are his likely holdings.

Playing the hand, I thought of two pair on 4th st to justify his bet. But that wld mean he’d have specifically 86 in the hole. Wld he call the raise on 3rd st with [68]6? He might discount my raise because of the dead queen, but a J has also called before him, and there’s still another player to act. It seems possible but a little doubtful. (If he does have two pair here, means I’ve less to worry from the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].)

What he actually had is, as I think about it, a more natural holding – [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He then bet 4th with his pair of 8’s and 3 flush. Taking this as another likely holding, I have to worry about the flush when the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits but less about A’s. On the river, he could make A’s up with another A, K’s up with a K if he had had the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the hole, or a flush with a heart. (He actually made A’s up.)

Overall, a flush seems the likeliest way for him to make his hand, and then he will reraise. Also, it’s possible he might reraise with K’s up or A’s up. Calling a reraise is difficult because a flush is the most likely holding for a reraise; but if I fold, I may lose unnecessarily when he reraises with K’s up or A’s up.

My conclusion now is that just calling the river is probably best. How’s my logic here?

What do you think of his bet on 6th street unimproved? The 4th street bet helps drive out the other hands, and the fifth street bet might have folded me. But why bet 6th unimproved? [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Bartholow]

People hate folding two pair, so I'd say you're getting called more often than you think. For one thing when you raise on the river they don't put you on queens up, they put you on something better or a total bluff.

I think your analysis is good but I'd give him a bit wider range in general. Weird things happen in stud. He could somehow have trips etc.

His bet on 6th is probably a little sketchy but not awful. No reason really to think you have more than 1 pair still.

[Wilson]

just a quick thought, and i'm no stud expert...

how were u plannin to play the river unimproved? which i guess is the same question as how villain would play the river if he didn't improve.

if ur gonna call the river, could u raise on 6th and check down the river with queens up or worse, and bet a str8 and (possibly dependin on how villain plays) fold to a checkraise?

i mean u've got a 4 str8 showin on board, and given u raised on 3rd after that many limpers, if he gives u credit for queens, he'd have to think u've got smthg like a suited J or T in the hole! granted, he's not foldin his flush draw, but at least ur less likely to get bluffed out if he ends up with just one pair of 6's or 8's.

also why not just limp on 3rd? one of ur queens is dead and ur kicker really doesn't add a whole lot to ur hand in this mkulti way pot... ur right next to the bring in, so ur not likely to be foldin anyone out!

btw i dunnno the results, so i might just sound like a total fool! lol

[Jeffage]

I think you should raise 6th since you're calling anyway. You will not be reraised with your board and you will get an extra bet if you make your hand on the river. Not to mention the slight chance your head if he was just pushing bc of the ace.

Jeff

[RainierBob]

I think raising 3rd makes it easier to get it heads up on 4th. Because of my dead queen, I particularly need it heads up. It seemed to me very nearly a choice between folding third and raising.

I like the idea now of raising 6th.

[Bill King]

bob i think you could make a case for folding the river if you believe your read is right. the pot isnt too big where you need to be making a less informed call with 1 pair.

this to me looks like he got lucky with two broadway cards burried.

i fold the river unimproved. might be little weak, but this doesnt seem like a bad spot to make a tight fold.

[Wilson]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising 3rd makes it easier to get it heads up on 4th. Because of my dead queen, I particularly need it heads up. It seemed to me very nearly a choice between folding third and raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree that ur hand would really want to get it heads up, but from wat i've seen at pretty much all $1/$2 stud games, players who have already called the bring-in, almost invariably also call a single raise back to them.

seein as ur directly to the left of the bring-in, and half the table has already limped in b4 u, ur raise isn't gonna serve the purpose of knockin out any players, apart from maybe the bring-in. ur raise on 3rd only pumps up the pot in a hand that's gonna be played multiway (ur hand pretty much sux multiway). ur likely gonna have to act first on 4th, or it may check round to u, either way, ur, again, not likely to get heads up cos u'll be makin a small bet, relative to the pot size, into a lot of players in a bloated pot.

the "best" scenario on 4th, which actually did happen, is for smone to catch an A or K and bet into u allowin u to raise and have a better chance of eliminatin sm of the competition, but even then u'd have to start wonderin abt the value of ur hand; ur not that far ahead of a pair with an overcard to queens and a big dog if the A or K is paired. one of ur Q's is dead, so ur slim chance of hittin trips, should u be up against aces or aces up, is all but gone. also, as in ur hand, u'll often be put to a lot of decisions where u won't really know where ur at, but force urself to call cos of the combination of the size of the pot and the chance that ur hand is good.

so IMO (that's how IMO is used, right?), the way to go is to limp on 3rd and see wat develops; the hand is probably too good to muck, but definitely not good enuff to raise given how it's gonna get played out. btw, i'm only sayin not to raise cos noone's gonna be foldin, if ur in middle position, say, and only one player limps in front of u, then u'd probably wanna raise to get everyone else to fold, but in the hand u posted, it just isn't gonna happen! so i reckon it's between foldin or callin, while raisin really doesn't accomplish a whole lot except put u in a tough spot.

hope i'm makin sense and pls tell me if i'm doin smthg totally wrong! lol