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#21
11-06-2007, 01:06 PM
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Re: 2/4 - I see monsters
Getting coolered by four of a kind sucks, but i thought 3-betting here at a minimum is pretty much robotic. This is live 2/4, remember. I had a hand recently at live 3/6 where I had AA, villain had raised UTG pf, then called my 3-bet. I hit an A on the turn, then the board paired 4's on the river. I bet and 3-bet automatically, then called down his 4-bet. I still felt like a wimp even after he showed me 44, and wondered if I had raised enough.
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#24
11-06-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: 2/4 - I see monsters
[ QUOTE ]
it was 50/50 his quads came in and thus no point in 3betting/calling. Point out the error in my thought process. [/ QUOTE ] It's 3:1 against that his quads came in. Basic combination counting. good luck. eric
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#25
11-06-2007, 04:08 PM
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Re: 2/4 - I see monsters
The weather is turning and it's getting cooler, so I'd suggest a nice wool blend:
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#26
11-06-2007, 04:18 PM
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Re: 2/4 - I see monsters
The skirt is nice but it's the pumps that sell it.
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#28
11-07-2007, 06:59 PM
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Re: 2/4 - I see monsters
First of all your playing with scared money. It's just Limit so you can't get broke on one hand, but you can lose value if you don't get all the money you can out of your winning hands. If it was no- limit one mistake can break you but it's limit so you need to get as much money as you can out of this hand. If he shows you the nuts (99) well, it was a tough beat and you lost some extra bets which is unpreventable given the strenght of your hand. But if you play it hard the odds are that your going to get max value. And if he did have 3 nines already i doubt he would have just called the turn and not raised, as you said he puts in a lot of bets when he believes he's ahead. And by you just calling on the end with Kings full, you show that you're capable of being run over because of how passive you played a really strong hand.
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#29
11-07-2007, 07:19 PM
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Re: 2/4 - I see monsters
A lot of the analysis of this hand is bothering me.
As long as our opponent isn't doing something weird with, like, a pair of aces, there isn't a single hand we beat that he should be raising this river with given his previous action. We're basically counting on him to raise the river on the strength of his hand alone -- not it's strength relative to our range. (something that he has not done previously in this hand. His flat call of our turn bet means he's afraid of what we have.) In other words, if we want to three-bet, assuming he's not getting way out of line, we're counting on his entire thought process on the river being "Wow! A full house! Wait til the guys hear about this! I RAISE!" Many of your analyses can be boiled down to something similar. "Not only do I have a full house, I have the f*cking nut full house!" is what you're saying. "Nothing wrong with losing a lot of money with a hand this strong!" It's fine if you want to three-bet. But you have to do it for the right reasons -- i.e., you think this guy is clueless enough to play a hand this way. I get the distinct feeling that a lot of you are just repeating some rule that you're a p*ssy for not raising with the nut boat. Look, there are a ton of situations where you'll want to put in three bets, and five or seven, for that matter, with the nut full house when the only hand that beats you has quads. Even with this specific board, when there are no straight or flushes possible, three-betting here is almost always going to be right. But this guy has already slowed way down on this hand. He didn't cap middle pair on the flop. He capped two pair or a set, and when we led into him, he got worried that he was behind. He's not putting us on K8 when he raises the river. Yeah, quads are a rare hand. But I think he has quads here a more often than he has a boat. Regardless, my point is this: If our river threebet is +EV, it's because our opponent has fallen into the trap of falling in love with the strength of his hand. Don't fall into that trap yourself. -McGee
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#30
11-08-2007, 12:48 PM
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Re: 2/4 - I see monsters
FWIW, I actually made two mistakes in this hand. One is forgetting that he coulda played hands other than 99 and 88 this way on the flop. Two is underestimating the retardedness of this particular opponent. He did in fact have 98 and slowed down on the turn due to being scared of my set of Kings, but then fell in love with his full house (yah, a FULL HOUSE!) on the river. Against a less retarded opponent I think a river raise is more scary.
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