Daliman's Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

[kdog]

I know you're not trying to make the point that the books are wrong. Your point is that SD should not be considered a wong teaser selection if the line is 7.5. But you have no data to back up your opinion. So you cannot make that point without saying the books are wrong.

[LogistX]

I'm not trying to say the books are wrong and the widely available line is -7, not -7.5. My only point is that if the line is pushed to -7.5 through what appears to be a lot of BSPs betting up the line, then I would think this makes for a poor wong teaser. If the line does move to -7.5, I think the books are absolutely correct to move it considering that it appears a lot of action has come in on SD, however, by no means does that make -7.5 the "true" line.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not trying to say the books are wrong and the widely available line is -7, not -7.5. My only point is that if the line is pushed to -7.5 through what appears to be a lot of BSPs betting up the line, then I would think this makes for a poor wong teaser. If the line does move to -7.5, I think the books are absolutely correct to move it considering that it appears a lot of action has come in on SD, however, by no means does that make -7.5 the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[LogistX]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

[paperchamp]

-7.5 is a rogue line. You don't wong the -7 for obvious reasons. Considering it's a road favorite it's an even worse idea. It has nothing to do with who moved the line.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think he believes correctly that closing lines are sharper than opening lines.

[kaboshedx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

NFL lines are sharpest at kickoff, stop acting as though you know something the rest of us don't.

(sigh)

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Think about this. That market forces have moved it is exactly what makes it the "true" line.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you believe in a perfectly efficient sports betting market, what are you doing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Helping to make it that way... One arb at a time.