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#61
10-10-2006, 04:06 PM
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Re: UFC UFN Thread
[ QUOTE ]
oddly, i cant find the official injury report.. should be posted here soon: http://www.dca.ca.gov/csac/suspensio...nsion_list.htm ill keep looking. [/ QUOTE ] Don't count on it. The CSAC sucks balls compared to the NSAC. Neverthelss, even if there is nothing posted on the CSAC website yet, I assume that CSAC would have had to have published injury reports in some form by now. Also there are reports that doctors exams on BJ's ribs came up negative, leading me to believe that BJ was full of it. 
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#62
10-10-2006, 04:34 PM
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Full card predictions, kinda...
Quick thoughts on the fights tonight, Ultimate Fight Night 10.10.06.
As always, these are cross-posted to my blog where you might find them easier to read as I have more control over the HTML formatting there... First off, I'm only making one official pick for this fight: Ortiz over Shamrock. I literally have rolled my entire sports betting bankroll on to this fight, and strongly believe that the line is +EV at anything under -1900. The line is currently a shade above -800, which certainly requires a large outlay for any real winnings, but this is about as guaranteed as it gets in MMA. Here are quick full-card predictions, with some quick thoughts, and the current lines: Tito Ortiz (-832) vs. Ken Shamrock : Ortiz by KO in the first round. Looks almost identical to the first fight, except you see Shamrock actually get knocked out by an elbow this time as the UFC waits a bit longer to stop things. Kendall Grove (-446) vs. Chris Price : Win #2 on the night for Team Punishment. Kendall starts by winning the battle in standup and finishes on the ground. TKO from strikes. Ed Herman vs. Jason MacDonald (+256): Jason MacDonald in a big upset. Jason is a strong fighter from Canada with great conditioning. Herman already had suspect conditioning in hte Kendall Groves fight and I'm not going to pick him here for that reason. Matt Hamill (-238) vs. Seth Petruzelli : Team Punishment win #3 on the night. This will be a tough test for Hamill, but working with Tito since he left the show, Hamill will come out and take care of business. Expect lots of wrestling and takedowns, I'm not sure on Hamill's ground-based offense yet, but he's got the wrestling and takedowns to win this and I'm sure Tito has taught him how to use his elbows by now. Calling a UD win here but if the elbows come out we will see a TKO likely in the second. Nathan Marquardt vs. Crafton Wallace : no line that i've seen. Should be a great fight though, really surprised this is on the undercard. But I guess with the Ortiz fight we should have plenty of time for an undercard bout or two. Wallace is a highly regarded Muay Thai fighter with strong ground skills, Marquardt is a ground fighter with strong striking. I'll call Marquardt here as he's more experienced, but would need to see a line to make an official pick because this should be close... Tony DeSouza (-324) vs. Dustin Hazelett : This was supposed to be a highlight match for Joe Riggs but he's hurt so we get Hazelett. DeSouza fought in UFC 31, 32 and 33 and went 2-1 in that stretch, and looked pretty solid. First return to the octagon since then obviously, but he's been fighting in MMA since 2004 and has gone 4-1 in five fights since his return to MMA. He's a strong BJJ fighter and wrestler. Hazelett takes the fight on three weeks notice, but is a training partner of Rich Franklin and Jorge Gurgel so he will be in shape for the fight. This fight definitely goes to the ground, both are solid submission fighters, and we'll see who pulls out the sub. Probably DeSouza but I wouldn't bet this. Josh Haynes vs. Rory Singer (+132) : I really don't like either of these guys and hopefully we don't have to see it. Singer has a reach advantage and a definite advantage on the ground, Haynes has proven himself vulnerabile to submissions, and has been aggressive in the past to the point of over-aggression. I think we see Rory catch him in a triangle in the second round. In a batch of non-picks, this is the worst of them. Could go either way, really don't even want to see either of these guys on screen if I can help it. Thiago Alves (+129) vs. John Alessio : We were supposed to see Alves fight at UFC 62, but Alves got sick and Nick Diaz stepped in and won a close decision over Josh Neer. Should be another close fight, and one we'll hopefully see. Both guys are skilled in BJJ, Thiago should have the standup edge with better Muay Thai but Alessio has the reach advantage. Alessio is favored for a reason, but I think Alves pulls the close upset. Alessio is going to want to ensure this doesn't go to the judges (he feels he got robbed in the UD loss to Diego Sanchez at UFC 60) and gets a little overaggressive and gets caught. Alves by TKO from strikes, third round. Marcus Davis vs. Forrest Petz (-356) : Petz is 12-2 in MMA, Davis is 8-3. Davis lost to Melvin Guillard in his only UFC visit, in the Ultimate Fighter 2 finale in November 2005. He was on TUF2, where he lost early on to Joe Stevenson. Petz won his only UFC visit, a UD over Sam Morgan at UFC Fight Night 6 in August of this year. This line seems a little out of whack to me: Petz should be favored, but I don't see it being this large. Davis is a strong striker and certainly has a puncher's chance here, but Petz is far far better on the ground, and this fight will hit the ground unless Petz gets caught shooting. Petz with a first round TKO, strikes from the mount.
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#63
10-10-2006, 04:41 PM
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Re: Full card predictions, kinda...
[ QUOTE ]
Nathan Marquardt vs. Crafton Wallace : no line that i've seen. Should be a great fight though, really surprised this is on the undercard. But I guess with the Ortiz fight we should have plenty of time for an undercard bout or two. Wallace is a highly regarded Muay Thai fighter with strong ground skills, Marquardt is a ground fighter with strong striking. I'll call Marquardt here as he's more experienced, but would need to see a line to make an official pick because this should be close... [/ QUOTE ] Not that Bodog has great lines, but they have a line out for this one: Nate Marquardt -600 Crafton Wallace +350 Also interesting at Bodog is the Tito line has moved from -1100 last night to -800 today, and it got dropped for a little while and has now reappeared at -850. I was beginning to wonder if something was up, but haven't seen anything.
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#64
10-10-2006, 05:09 PM
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Re: Full card predictions, kinda...
Meh, probably a bet on Wallace even at +350 i'd say. I think this should be much closer...
If Pinny opens the line and its around +500 that would be a decent play, I think. Lots of people really like Marquardt here but I think he's overrated...
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#65
10-10-2006, 05:13 PM
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Re: UFC UFN Thread
I'm laying off this card entirely. I don't see anything I like. Shamrock is really in big trouble this fight. However, I always hate laying really big odds in MMA. A fluke knee could open a big gash in Tito's head causing a stoppage. It's remote but enough to scare off the weak of heart (me)..
- Mac
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#66
10-10-2006, 05:27 PM
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Re: UFC UFN Thread
I can't argue. I'm laying off entirely except for Ortiz.
Just posted picks above because I had a bit of time to do some very preliminary research and its always worth tracking my picks even if i'm not betting on them here...
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#67
10-10-2006, 05:35 PM
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Re: Full card predictions, kinda...
agreed on all counts with the exception of herman, but im not going to be too shocked if it goes the way you predicted.
the reason nate is on the undercard is because he was previously set to fight Thales Leites, which would have almost certainly gone to a decision because of their respective styles. still haunted by the sallavery v marquart debacle, zuffa decided to put the fight on the undercard. leites withdrew due to injury, wallace stepped up. as nate will surely sub him by the time the opening bell is done ringing, expect this to see this fight at some point during the event. current line at BOF: nate -550 wallace +450 absurdly safe money on nate.
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#69
10-10-2006, 05:39 PM
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Re: UFC UFN Thread
[ QUOTE ]
I'm laying off this card entirely. I don't see anything I like. Shamrock is really in big trouble this fight. However, I always hate laying really big odds in MMA. A fluke knee could open a big gash in Tito's head causing a stoppage. It's remote but enough to scare off the weak of heart (me).. - Mac [/ QUOTE ] three words keep me from putting money on these massive overdog sure thing bets: "tyson" "versus" "mcbride"
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#70
10-10-2006, 06:04 PM
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Re: UFC UFN Thread
I respect everyone posts and opinions, but any sort of MMA line over +1000 is just flat out crazy. There's no way that a decent fighter (Shamrock) loses here 10 out of 11 times. In boxing maybe, but not here. For most peoples sakes here, I hope I'm wrong.
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