Straight on the River

[Bartholow]

I agree with Wilson here, as I mentioned in my first reply.

Raising 3rd should make it harder to get the pot headsup on 4th, not easier.

Page 55 of Seven Card Stud for Advanced Players, 21st century edition: [ QUOTE ]
A deuce brings it in, a five calls, a seven calls, and a nine calls. You have (Qc 8d) Qs and are next to the bring in. You should just call....If one of your queens were dead, you'd be back to just calling even with a straight flush kicker.

[/ QUOTE ] Awfully similar to your hand, eh?

Your dead pair has a decent shot of not really having an equity edge here on 3rd, and if does have one it's not huge. So your raises really need to be designed to raise your equity, and raising 3rd doesn't do it, it actually ties people on to the hand. Even a live pair of queens would be very close, but this hand should be just called and you should even be pretty willing to give it up on 4th.

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I do think with just 1 pair it would be close in terms of folding the river. I'd be a lot more likely to make this kind of fold live though.

[SweetLuckyMe]

That's a value bet - every time. You can't play this game always fearing the nuts.

[Mac]

Without reading other responses, I'm liking the line of

3rd - smooth call, a raise from that late position usually won't knock out anyone (particularly with the dead Q)

4th - great raise!

7th - raise the river, he would pay off with most two pair, trips, or lower straights

- Mac

[RainierBob]

Upon further review, I think I overlooked bad position in evaluating the third st raise. I've often seen players call 3rd st raises, then fold to a bet on 4th, but this where the 3rd st raise is under suspicion as a steal, not the case here.

If I'd called, then had to lead 4th and had caught no scare card, what wld you recommend? If I lead out and everybody calls, I haven't learned much and I've helped to build a multi-way pot where I'm far from a favorite. Perhaps it wld be reasonable to chk and hope for a chance to check-raise?

[Bartholow]

Yeah, it will really depend on how things fall on 4th. If someone pairs a doorcard, I would most likely check and fold. If a couple players catch suited, I might check and see what happens, raising if it will face a decent part of the field with calling two cold, but also being willing to fold depending on the action. If a couple overcards fall the situation is similar. If noone catches anything remotely scary, I will usually bet out. You will get more folds than if you had raised 3rd, because the pot is small and they all caught seemingly bad. And maybe someone will raise you with a worse hand.

[BladeRnr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your analysis is good but I'd give him a bit wider range in general.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from not raising 7th, I like your line here. However, you haven't really said anything about Villain. Is he solid, a donk, or somewhere in between? Your analysis of Villain's range is fine, but you may be overestimating him if he's a typical low limit stud player.

Given the strength of your hand and the relatively non-threatening nature of his board, I'd raise 7th in a heartbeat.

[iggymcfly]

I can't imagine why you're not raising the river here. Villian's been betting the whole way here, so his most likely hand is some kind of two pair combination or trips, both of which you're beating. This is an easy, easy, raise as far as I'm concerned.