i bloat pots w/ middle pairs (NL100)

[olliejen]

After subscribing to CR and watching some fo the NL100 videos I've been flirting with opening my 3-betting range in blind defense and with position.

Its generally been a positive thing, but I've definitely gotten myself into tricky'ish spots that I'm not as comfortable in.

In this hand:

UTG seems pretty regular to me, hasn't made any splashy moves, generally been quiet. I have seen him on other tables, so my guess is that he's not a sports-bettor just killing some time in poker.

Button: bad, cold calls a lot and folds.

UTG has $99, Button has $71 & I cover them both.

Pre-flop
UTG standard opens for $3.50, I 3-bet him $12.50 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], folds to bad Button who calls, both blinds fold and UTG calls.

Is this too much in this spot? I don't have a great read on UTG and if he 4-bets I'm done. I expected him to fold a lot of the time here...

Flop ($38.25): 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG checks, <font color="red">I bet $30 </font> , Button folds, <font color="red">UTG pushes $86.50</font>

2 more questions:

1. I think the flop bet is standard (I can't check) but I'm not sure if I should have made it a little smaller to lower my commitment to the hand. In retrospect, I feel like I'm telegraphing an overpair (which I'm guessing he knows?) and I have the smallest overpair you can have in this spot (though he probably doesn't know)

2. Now that I'm in this spot, I have to call this right? I'm in bad shape against like, TT/JJ &amp; sets, but the board is drawwy and I think there are enough hands he could have here that I can't turn down the chance he has one of them. Not to mention he could have a hand like A8 or 66 or a bluff...

editted for grammar.

[kaby]

Board: 8d 7d 5s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.337% 72.02% 00.31% 23530 102.50 { QQ-TT, 88-77, 55, AdQd, AdJd, Td9d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s }
Hand 1: 27.663% 27.35% 00.31% 8935 102.50 { 9c9h }

this seems like a fine range imho (maybe a tad too loose because he could just call KK+ IP, i tried to discount suited connectors somewhat that's why you see only some combinations), now do the math

[stickdude]

It's close - if you think he'll push a flush draw.

Board: 8d 7d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.596% 65.32% 01.27% 31042 604.50 { 66+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd }
Hand 1: 33.404% 32.13% 01.27% 15269 604.50 { 9c9h }

You have to call $56.50 to win a $98.25 pot - 64.5% of the time you'll lose the $56.60 ($-36.44), and 35.5% of the time you'll win $98.25 (+$34.88). So EV-wise, calling/folding against that range is pretty close to neutral.

Given that he raised UTG and called a 3-bet, I'd tend to weight his hand range toward sets/bigger overpairs which have you in much worse shape. I probably fold this, but I don't think it's a huge mistake to call, either.

[olliejen]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 8d 7d 5s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.337% 72.02% 00.31% 23530 102.50 { QQ-TT, 88-77, 55, AdQd, AdJd, Td9d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7s6s }
Hand 1: 27.663% 27.35% 00.31% 8935 102.50 { 9c9h }

this seems like a fine range imho (maybe a tad too loose because he could just call KK+ IP, i tried to discount suited connectors somewhat that's why you see only some combinations), now do the math

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it expected to see 9Ts and QQ calling pre-flop OOP? I have been 3-betting a good amount, but not maniacally...

Also, if 55 calls pre-flop 66 belongs in this range too, don't you think?

I have to call 56.50 to win 154.75, about 2.75:1. It's close, depending how you hedge the range don't you think?

[tubasteve]

i know that this isnt what youre asking, but i dont think 99 is a good hand to be opening up your 3-bet range with vs a UTG open

[olliejen]

[ QUOTE ]
i know that this isnt what youre asking, but i dont think 99 is a good hand to be opening up your 3-bet range with vs a UTG open

[/ QUOTE ]

No actually, I appreciate the feedback &amp; was wondering if this was out of line/unnecessarily putting me into difficult postflop positions...

[dallas14]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i know that this isnt what youre asking, but i dont think 99 is a good hand to be opening up your 3-bet range with vs a UTG open

[/ QUOTE ]

No actually, I appreciate the feedback &amp; was wondering if this was out of line/unnecessarily putting me into difficult postflop positions...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's ok to be 3-betting 99 IP imo. But you need to do it to the right opponets. Calling stations and loose fish are ideal. Regulars, not so much, especially UTG openers. As played, I do not think his range is wide enough to make the call. As I think you metoined in your OP he hasnt gotten out of line. Actually I forgot what you wrote abuot him while wrtting this

[tubasteve]

good points dallas.

regarding postflop now that i have taken a look:

considering you need 26% equity getting 2.75-1, have probably 5-6 outs on average (if behind you have around 20-25% equity) and could have the best hand, you have to call IMO although its close.

edit: too lazy to do the stoving but its super close IMO and i could def be convinced its a fold if someone approximated a few ranges and did the calcs.

double edit: just reread the posts and the stoving done already seems to confirm that its a close call, esp given the margin of error from when he has air sometimes

[llleisure]

Glad to hear it's not just me that those videos have that effect on lol... You need to be very aware of who you're 3betting and I tend to give an UTG opener more credit than say a CO or BTN opener without any other knowledge (ie. I'd be more hesitant to 3bet a guy multi-tabling who has opened UTG.)