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  #1  
Old 11-14-2007, 04:51 PM
tippy tippy is offline
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Default Back to the well once more...long dollar

Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.
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  #2  
Old 11-14-2007, 04:53 PM
ArturiusX ArturiusX is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

A double top is an extremely strong pattern too!
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  #3  
Old 11-14-2007, 04:56 PM
Zygote Zygote is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything. You should rather sit on the sidelines if you think there is a chance of a serious retracement, IMO, and wait to buy EUR/USD cheap if that happens.
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  #4  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:02 PM
CrushinFelt CrushinFelt is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

Weren't inflation numbers good? And credit crunch is continuing onward? Thus a Fed rate cut in the short-term is becoming more likely? Which would in turn hurt the dollar more?
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  #5  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:17 PM
Zygote Zygote is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
Weren't inflation numbers good? And credit crunch is continuing onward? Thus a Fed rate cut in the short-term is becoming more likely? Which would in turn hurt the dollar more?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's right. plus the dollar is screwed mid-long range regardless unless they raise rates to save it.
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  #6  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:02 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, relative interest rate diffs w/ the developing world can definitely converge, increasing demand for the dollar relative to EUR or GBP.

personally, i think the GBP is a better long since the UK economy is very unstable and highly dependent upon record credit driven domestic consumption...further that is based on huuuuuuuuuuuge housing price increases. these are unsustainable and, when the sh*t hits the fan, mervin king will not hold off pulling the trigger on lower rates like he did injecting liquidity into the system or to help save northern rock. he will move rates down more than the US will since the inflation picture is better in the UK than US.

therefore, the USD will increase in value relative to the pound, probably to 1.85 or so.

it is not crazy to go long the dollar vs. anything just because you know the dollar is a weak fundamental currency overall.

that isn't good trading logic at all.
Barron
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  #7  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:12 PM
Zygote Zygote is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,051
Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, relative interest rate diffs w/ the developing world can definitely converge, increasing demand for the dollar relative to EUR or GBP.

personally, i think the GBP is a better long since the UK economy is very unstable and highly dependent upon record credit driven domestic consumption...further that is based on huuuuuuuuuuuge housing price increases. these are unsustainable and, when the sh*t hits the fan, mervin king will not hold off pulling the trigger on lower rates like he did injecting liquidity into the system or to help save northern rock. he will move rates down more than the US will since the inflation picture is better in the UK than US.

therefore, the USD will increase in value relative to the pound, probably to 1.85 or so.

it is not crazy to go long the dollar vs. anything just because you know the dollar is a weak fundamental currency overall.

that isn't good trading logic at all.
Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm short GBP/CAD because i agree with your assessment. I just think the USD is far from the optimal currency to be long.

As for the EUR, im short EUR/CHF... not that much though. Most of my long CHF comes from the USD. Overall my portfolio is almost all short the USD though, and has been for a while. Having the dollar long as part of your portfolio is at best a sacrifice of optimality and at worse a disaster IMO.
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  #8  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:18 PM
tippy tippy is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

Uh oh. PBOC's Yi out with the same comments that Cheng came out with last week. Damn, they are out to get me.

This isn't good. I may have gotten too greedy here. Putting a tight stop on this one at 1.4690.

As for all the other reasons posted, you guys said the same thing last week, LOL.
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  #9  
Old 11-17-2007, 12:40 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Spewin them chips
Posts: 10,115
Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
Uh oh. PBOC's Yi out with the same comments that Cheng came out with last week. Damn, they are out to get me.

This isn't good. I may have gotten too greedy here. Putting a tight stop on this one at 1.4690.

As for all the other reasons posted, you guys said the same thing last week, LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is reason for that.

the USD/EUR pair only appreciated 1.69% in this time frame whereas the USD/GBP appreciated 2.48%.

4.5pips spread or not, you would have made far more money.

Barron
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  #10  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:16 PM
Tweety Tweety is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 211
Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, relative interest rate diffs w/ the developing world can definitely converge, increasing demand for the dollar relative to EUR or GBP.

personally, i think the GBP is a better long since the UK economy is very unstable and highly dependent upon record credit driven domestic consumption...further that is based on huuuuuuuuuuuge housing price increases. these are unsustainable and, when the sh*t hits the fan, mervin king will not hold off pulling the trigger on lower rates like he did injecting liquidity into the system or to help save northern rock. he will move rates down more than the US will since the inflation picture is better in the UK than US.

therefore, the USD will increase in value relative to the pound, probably to 1.85 or so.

it is not crazy to go long the dollar vs. anything just because you know the dollar is a weak fundamental currency overall.

that isn't good trading logic at all.
Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm short GBP/CAD because i agree with your assessment. I just think the USD is far from the optimal currency to be long.

As for the EUR, im short EUR/CHF... not that much though. Most of my long CHF comes from the USD. Overall my portfolio is almost all short the USD though, and has been for a while. Having the dollar long as part of your portfolio is at best a sacrifice of optimality and at worse a disaster IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Short eurchf has been a debacle position the past few days.

What sort of time horizon do you have? What are your profit and s/l levels in eurchf?
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