No more doubts.....poker=skill

[All in Che]

If you've ever sat at a poker table, you've invariably heard the questions asked in the title of this article. While all serious players believe poker is a game of skill, they don't always agree on how skilful a game it really is. Some people believe the skill to luck ratio falls at somewhere around 70% - 30%, while others argue that the ratio is closer to 90% - 10%. If you ask me, however, I'll tell you something you won't hear from almost anybody else. Poker is 100% skilful.

Now, I know many of you are already skeptical about how I can make this kind of claim. What about bad beats? Or the times you're out-drawn on the river? How can I not figure these kinds of situations into my thinking? The fact is, I already have. Variance is part of poker and it would be highly unusual if bad beats didn't occasionally happen or if two-outers didn't sometimes hit on the river, as this would defy the laws of probability. The fact is, these kinds of events should have less of an impact on your overall results the more you play.

If you only play a few hands or a few hours of poker at a time, luck will undoubtedly play a bigger factor in your results than if you play regularly. For example, let's look at a player who puts in eight hours a day, five days a week, for 50 weeks per year, which is equivalent to 2,000 hours at the table. Assuming this is a solid, smart player who doesn't vary his or her stakes throughout the course of the year, I believe their talent will outweigh the effect of luck to ensure that they produce positive results year after year. That's not to say this player won't run into the occasional rough patch or have losing sessions, but by sticking to their game plan, these occasional down-turns shouldn't adversely affect their bottom line.

In effect, all players get paid for every good decision that they make and penalized for their bad ones. By continuously making high-quality decisions over the course of so many hours, skilful players should make more good decisions than bad, and see their bankrolls grow as a result. I have done this for more than 33 years, and know many other professional players who have produced similar results for many years. What this shows me is that, over the long haul, luck is not only insignificant when it comes to your results - it's non-existent.

It takes a true professional to look at poker in this way, and I fully expect that many people will disagree with my conclusions. That's why I'm holding a scheduled chat session entitled "Poker - Luck or Skill" on Full Tilt Poker at 15:00 ET (3PM ET) on Saturday, April 7th. I'll be happy to answer any questions you may have about my position and further explain why I believe that, over the long term, luck has nothing to do with being a winning poker player.

Source: Ben Roberts
Poker Pro

This article from Ben has cleared my mind and think different about chance, luck, probability, bad beats, poker, and life. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[DopamineRelease]

Ben Roberts plays good ldo

[barncat]

april 7th cant wait

[Xylocain]

Dude, I had KK crushed by AA yesterday. Are you going to tell me thats because I'm not skilled enough? How the [censored] am I supposed to expertly flop a K? You tell me that.

Poker skill vs luck == 50:50

You have it or you dont.

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

who honestly didnt know this before

lol ben give us some credit

[Hathawulf]

This is exactly the kind of situation the article was stating...

It isn't about 1 hand.
It is about a consistant play style where as, over time the number of times you lose to an AA crushing your KK will be minimized by the number of times that your KK play will win if you play consistantly.

There is luck within each draw of the card, but statistically over time, the number of times you see AA trumping your KK will be less then the number of times your KK will trump others. So by knowing the statistics, choosing (through skill) your play style that best optimizes the statistics, you will win more then you lose over 1000's of hands.

So it is 100% skill over time but not within a single hand.

[JokersAttack]

poker = skill?