Splitting 88 against a 10 (Blackjack)

[ukmatt]

Can anyone help me here - I am trying to explain why splitting 8s is a good bet against a dealers 10. I have shown the EV table. I have explained that both staying and splitting 88 is a losing bet but that splitting means losing less.

This is the last response I got from the person that disagrees with me:

"I bet a hundred dollars, and I hit my 8/8, you split them (and increase your wager to $200).

I lose $52, you lose $86.

I think I'll stick to my system. Thank you for proving my point again. I can't help it if you don't understand losing losing 43% of $200 is worse than losing 52% of 100. "

I know basic strategy backs me up but how do I prove it?

Thanks!

[playersare]

not sure where you got those percentages from.

the key figure you want to know is the NET EXPECTATION of UNITS returned on either bet.

on a typical 6-deck shoe game:
hitting 8/8 vs. T = -0.535361 on ONE UNIT (53.5% loss rate)
standing 8/8 vs. T = -0.536853 on ONE UNIT (53.6% loss)
splitting 8/8 vs. T = -0.486850 on TWO UNITS (24.3% loss)
[source: BJA3, Schlesinger]

your "opponent" probably misinterpreted the math as losing 48.6% on EACH of the two units, not the two units COMBINED.

easist way to figure it out, just look at the EV of just getting dealt a single hand of hard 8 (6/2, 5/3, or 4/4). your EV on ANY hard 8 vs. dealer T is about -0.247 to -0.249 off the top. all you're doing by splitting 8/8 is giving yourself two of those identical opportunities, versus playing a hard 16 vs. T instead. there is NO WAY you're losing $86 out of $200 in that situation. correct math, opponent loses $53, you lose $48. [censored] owes you 2 hot dogs.

as a general rule, don't even bother talking to anyone who thinks they are smarter than basic strat, especially anyone who refers to their incorrect playing style as a "system". it's possible he'll look at these figures and still think he's right, and we've wasted time and energy for nothing.

[ukmatt]

Thanks for the detailed response.

I have to admit the online articles I read about splitting 8s did not read as if the loss was 48 dollars in total - it read as if the loss was 48 dollars per one hundred bet (i.e. 96 dollars after I split).

UKMatt