thoughts on 3betting when you have 30-50bbs

[WarDekar]

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I generally just fold 22-55 when I am out of position and dont have set odds and facing a competant player.

Is this a leak?

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No, and I actually was soooooo close to open-folding 88 UTG last night at a FT, but couldn't get myself to. (NOTE: I should have)

[IWEARGOGGLES]

I'm split on this situation because calling/floating costs just as much as 3-betting (which folds a huge part of people's ranges late in tournaments like this) and it is MUCH more difficult to play post flop after flatting. Factor in squeezing, etc etc and I'd rather 3-bet from the button and flat out of the blinds.

[betgo]

Let's look at this problem mathematically. 33 is 46% against a top 25% hand. If you flat call, you are getting 2-1 pot odds, assuming 1xBB in ante, and you play the hand in position. Sometimes the blinds overcall or reraise/squeeze. This seems like a marginally favorable situation if you are comfortable playing 33 with shallow money.

If you reraise/fold, you risk 7-8xBB to pick up a 5xBB pot. What do you do if you get flat called and miss your set? This approach may not be cEV-.

Once you reraise, it folding to a 4-bet the correct play? You are putting in about 38% of the money to a push. 33 is 38% against a top 8% hand, which would assume villain pushes 1/3 of the time. The fact that the decision is close is an argument for not reraising.

Incidently my calculations show a 3-bet overbet push is maybe very slightly cEV+. You get called about 30% of the time by raiser or the blinds and you are about 33% to win if called. Your expected loss if called is about twice your gain if you steal, so it is a very close big gamble.

I think reraise/fold is popular because it avoids difficult decisions and minimizes the chances of busting out. If you are going to reraise, reraise/call is probably slightly better. The overbet push gets more folds, but with a reraise/call strategy, you get away from the hand when there are 2 allins in front of you or something.

[Todd Terry]

Great posts by LearnedFromTV and sheets, coming to opposite conclusions.

If you call here, I think you are calling with the primary objective of bluffing your opponent out of the hand later on. There are 3 ways for you to win if you flat: hit a set, win a river showdown UI, or get your opponent to fold a better hand. Hitting a set is happening 12% of the time on the flop, 18% if you get to the river. Winning a river showdown unimproved is happening very rarely -- it would almost have to go c-bet, call; check, check; check, check. Thus, for flatting to be +cEV, you're going to have to turn your hand into a bluff a significant % of the time. IMO you're not deep enough to do that profitably enough. Additionally, since he's opening so wide, the odds of winning a huge hand if you hit a set are low, because he's extremely unlikely to have a hand he'll stack off with.

By 3betting pre, you're basically turning your hand into a bluff, which is only going to be +cEV if Villain is opening wide but calling/shoving narrow, which if he's opening 25% of hands he very well may be. Or as Sheets pointed out if he's calling/shoving very wide, in which case you might want to bet/call, but it's a seriously risky, marginal play. You also have a couple people behind you to worry about.

If you knew the table was breaking on the next hand, I think the max cEV play is to fold pre. If you're looking to slow down Villain, which I think is long-term +$EV, I think 3betting > flatting, because you're going to have to fold a lot of flops if you flat.

[d2themfi]

shrug, i usually just fold in these spots. If he is openign 25% of his hands you really dont have implied odds, after u factor in the amount of times the blinds squeeze and u fold, or you call and are an underdog to their range.

And playing postflop with a small pair vs an aggressive player with shallow stacks is hard to play profitably. Position is important, but we are pretty shallow which negates some of our positional advantage. Idk, i think it is best to fold 33 here

[MrTimCaum]

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shrug, i usually just fold in these spots. If he is openign 25% of his hands you really dont have implied odds, after u factor in the amount of times the blinds squeeze and u fold, or you call and are an underdog to their range.

And playing postflop with a small pair vs an aggressive player with shallow stacks is hard to play profitably. Position is important, but we are pretty shallow which negates some of our positional advantage. Idk, i think it is best to fold 33 here

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hey there, you did a much better job of explaining this than i did. i wish i was better at getting my point across [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Ben86]

youre reasonably deep in position i see no need to 3 bet here. play poker, flop some sets, float some flops, basically what bakes said.

[betgo]

I think it depends on how well you play postflop whether flat calling is best. In general, it seems to be the best approach, but 33 is not a great hand to see a flop with. Anything you do is as best slightly cEV+ compared to folding.

My analysis indicates that reraise/calling is slightly cEV+, and reraise/folding is probably atleast not cEV-.

I really don't see anything wrong with a fold if you are not comfortable with reraising or calling.

[apestyles]

I muck out of position usually. Or call but have to check raise alot of dry boards.

[Hattifnatt]

calling in this spot is not a good idea imo, 3-bet/call, 3-bet/fold or push doesnt seem like v good options either so I think its best to just fold it actually even though you are ahead of his range.