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#81
03-23-2007, 02:33 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
Response to Admo
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Up to $100,000 at 5-1 that I win a bracelet in 2007. [/ QUOTE ] I'll book this at $25k, and can post immediately. To clarify, I'm laying 5-1 that you will not win any of Events #1-55 (events #2 and #42 excluded) in the 2007 WSOP. For the events you're playing in I think the line is pretty fair, though I obv think I'm getting the best of it by a small margin. I'll be at the series all summer, so if you go deep I'll be in the stands for the ESPN Prop Sweat segment. [/ QUOTE ] Based on the 100k max (5-1), the most you could wager is 20k. Nevertheless, making 100k would be sweet for doing no work. You can thank me when he hands you the $$. 
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#82
03-23-2007, 02:36 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
[ QUOTE ]
So is Daniel(le) saying he hasn't been trying his hardest the last few years? That he has improved greatly in the last 3 years? What a pompous windbag. Also, anyone willing to lay serious odds that he will for sure win another bracelet in his liifetime is an idiot, but I don't have much faith in bets that could have a 30 year life on internet message boards. [/ QUOTE ] I think we all realize that a 30 year bet is unrealistic. Even though you agree with me, there is no need to insult anyone. He is still a tremendous poker player. It's just unfortunate he won't win another bracelet.
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#84
03-23-2007, 02:41 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
Response to SGspecial
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was going to take this bet at first but it's actually a lot iffier than it sounds. Using the pokerwire figures for the 2006 WSOP I found that if a break-even player played all events (except seniors, ladies, and casino employees) he would be 11.5:1 against winning. However that was out of 37 events. This year's WSOP will have about 10 more events. And the fields will be smaller. If you reduce the fields I used for the 2006 calculation by 15%, the new odds are a mere 9:1 against a break-even player. Considering the additional events, the smaller fields I anticipate, and the fact that DN is not break-even it's a reasonably close bet imo. However many of the events conflict with each other, and DN's post indicated that he would miss many events. (Then again if he gets enough action on this wager he perhaps won't.) In conclusion... I'm not sure. It could definitely be a good bet if DN does not play loads of events. If DN actually played all 52 or whatever events for which he is eligible, and the schedule conflicts were not too severe, I would think it's a -EV bet. [/ QUOTE ] I think we need an expert handicapper to weigh in on this issue. King Yao, if you're out there, would you take this bet?? [/ QUOTE ] This is clearly +EV. His offer of 5-1 is a gift. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I guess he can always deduct it in taxes.
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#85
03-23-2007, 02:43 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
[ QUOTE ]
19 consecutive posts, record? [/ QUOTE ] You killed my streak. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I'm tired. Time to get something to eat.
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#86
03-23-2007, 03:01 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
[ QUOTE ]
To clarify the 5-1, I would be getting the 5x [/ QUOTE ] No, dude. He gives you $1K (or whatever) if he doesn't win a bracelet this year. You give him $5K if he does.
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#87
03-23-2007, 03:30 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
[ QUOTE ]
To clarify the 5-1, I would be getting the 5x [/ QUOTE ] are you intentionally trying to sound ignorant?
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#88
03-23-2007, 03:42 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] To clarify the 5-1, I would be getting the 5x [/ QUOTE ] are you intentionally trying to sound ignorant? [/ QUOTE ] DN is offering the bet. If a sportsbook offers me a wager at 5-1, I am the one getting 5x. That's why this would need to be clarified. ...Why is it unusual that I would want to clarify the wager? This is done all the time.
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#89
03-23-2007, 03:57 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
[ QUOTE ]
Response to SGspecial This is clearly +EV. His offer of 5-1 is a gift. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I guess he can always deduct it in taxes. [/ QUOTE ] At least Daniel isn't wasting everybody's time with endless pointless posts. He is basically saying put up, or shut up. He is willing to put up.
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#90
03-23-2007, 04:06 PM
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Re: Will Daniel Negreanu ever win another WSOP Bracelet?
[ QUOTE ]
Response to redCashion [ QUOTE ] I'm not a big fan of what I've seen of his cash game, but he has to be a top 5 tourney player at least. OP really was on a totally transparent fishing trip. [/ QUOTE ] If by top 5, you mean tied for 27 on the all-time bracelet count, then yes your assessment is accurate...I've always wanted to try fishing. [/ QUOTE ] There are more tournaments then the WSOP. Daniel is 3rd all time on the money list with $9,664,208 only behind Jamie Gold and Joe Hachem. Your argument is very flawed.
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