Settle this Baseball Argument

[PokerFink]

Swing away. Bunting is for pussies.

Seriously though, I'm not a big fan of sac bunts, but it looks like the EV here is incredibly close. If the guy is a good bunter, do it. If the guy can't bunt for [censored], and plenty of MLB players can't, then don't bunt.

[MicroBob]

bunting is different in college than in the MLB perhaps because of the skill-difference of the fielders.

There is zero mention of how the defense is positioned and which way they plan on rotating/covering (which can change from pitch-to-pitch), if there is a particularly vulnerable spot on the D or not, how solid or perhaps jumpy the catcher might be, if they react to pressure well or appear potentially nervous, even righty-lefty of the batter/pitcher and the subsequent batters can make a big difference here.

If the 3B just made a bobble on a play to let one of the runners or might still be thinking about having struck-out with the bases-loaded in the 8th then that would increase the chances I would try to push a bunt in his direction.

If the catcher's arm sucks or if the pitcher is a lousy fielder and I think might be prone to spinning and sailing it into RF then I'm more likely to bunt.

The actual bunting skill of the batter and the kind of pitcher he's facing is all pretty basic stuff that needs to be considered too.
If it's my very best bunter up there then that kind of makes a difference.

I really believe that all this 71% vs. 69% saber-crap is really just a basic tool that should be used just out of curiousity and perhaps as a very rough foundation.
It should not be the last say as to whether one strategy is supposedly going to always be better than the other.


What if a pitcher gets more outs throwing curve-balls than he does throwing fast-balls? Does that mean that he should just throw curve-balls 100% of the time? Of course not. But it begins to feel like that is the kind of logic being used for a lot of this "is a sacrifice better than swinging-away" type of saber-arguments.

[MuresanForMVP]

[ QUOTE ]
Braun is not significantly better than Hall. Hotter and luckier doesn't mean better.

[/ QUOTE ]

go on...

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
Braun is not significantly better than Hall. Hotter and luckier doesn't mean better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, Hall is running bad and Braun is running hot. Yes, they have similar K and BB numbers and batted ball numbers (i.e. similar LD, GB and FB numbers).

But the quality of Braun's batted balls, particularly his flyballs, are different. Braun's flyballs have been hit better than Hall's and tend to go further. Braun's Home runs average @ ten feet further than Hall's, and he has hit more of them.

Hittracker Hall
Hittracker Braun

[dlk9s]

I think the key word is "significantly." I don't argue that Braun and Fielder are better hitters than Hall, but not "significantly." Not "waaaaaaaaaaay" better.

Hall did poorly in the beginning of the season, but he started doing well about 3 weeks before he went on the DL. For someone who hit <.240 in April, he's made a nice turnaround to get to >.270 (power numbers are down, though). He has also been much more clutch (no numbers to back this up, just observation) than either Braun or Fielder. In fact, as tremendous as Braun has been, he has been utterly miserable in key situations from about the 7th inning on in the last few weeks. Fielder hasn't been much of a factor for a month, although he is keeping his average right in the .280 range.

Braun has been awesome. I love him. But I don't think we can say he is "significantly" better than Hall based on such a small sample size. He hasn't even been in the bigs for the entire season. Lest we forget, Hall hit close to .300 two seasons ago and then hit 35 HR's last year.

Again, not saying Braun and Fielder aren't better hitters than Hall - they are great so far and are two of my favorite players already - but they aren't leaps and bounds better.

And Hall is definitely better than Hardy.

But I digress. Back to the bunting discussion.

[DrewDevil]

Augie is neither drunk nor an idiot, and he's won a bazillion games.

ESPECIALLY if it's tied in the bottom of the ninth, you only need one run, why wouldn't you bunt? Get the guy to third with two outs to bring him in, and you don't even necessarily need a hit.

[THAY3R]

Corollation != Causation

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
ESPECIALLY if it's tied in the bottom of the ninth, you only need one run, why wouldn't you bunt? Get the guy to third with two outs to bring him in, and you don't even necessarily need a hit.

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Why wouldn't you bunt? Because maybe you have a better chance taking 3 shots at a getting a hit than 2 shots at a sac fly. That is what the entire thread is about, calculating these factors.

[kidcolin]

drew,

honestly, have you read any of this thread?

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the key word is "significantly." I don't argue that Braun and Fielder are better hitters than Hall, but not "significantly." Not "waaaaaaaaaaay" better.

Hall did poorly in the beginning of the season, but he started doing well about 3 weeks before he went on the DL. For someone who hit <.240 in April, he's made a nice turnaround to get to >.270 (power numbers are down, though). He has also been much more clutch (no numbers to back this up, just observation) than either Braun or Fielder. In fact, as tremendous as Braun has been, he has been utterly miserable in key situations from about the 7th inning on in the last few weeks. Fielder hasn't been much of a factor for a month, although he is keeping his average right in the .280 range.

Braun has been awesome. I love him. But I don't think we can say he is "significantly" better than Hall based on such a small sample size. He hasn't even been in the bigs for the entire season. Lest we forget, Hall hit close to .300 two seasons ago and then hit 35 HR's last year.

Again, not saying Braun and Fielder aren't better hitters than Hall - they are great so far and are two of my favorite players already - but they aren't leaps and bounds better.

And Hall is definitely better than Hardy.

But I digress. Back to the bunting discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured if I brought it back up someone would make my argument for me. Thanks.