Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn

[Lloyd]

This is part 3 of our first Play a Hand With the Masters. If you haven't already read, thought about, and posted in the pre-flop thread and flop thread you should do so first.

Here is the hand up until our next decision point:

Setup

$10,000 Buy-In Event
Day 1
Blinds 75/150 and will go up to 100/200 on the next hand
Hero has been at the table for about an hour with no unusual play. All players are unknown except for Miami John to his direct left. The CO in this hand has been playing pretty tight.

Relevant Stacks

CO 25,000
Hero 11,500
MJ 13,000
BB 9,800

Pre-Flop
Everyone folds to the CO who limps for T150. Hero is on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raises to T600. MJ calls in the SB for T600, the BB folds, and the CO calls for T600.

Flop
Pot: T1950

T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn
Pot: T1950

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO bets T1500. Action is on the hero.

Range of hands for CO? Do you fold, call, or raise (and if so, how much)? Thought process is obviously critical here. If you call or raise do you have a plan on the river (presuming you do not raise all-in)?

[Exitonly]

Best card in the deck (or worst) I'd raise to 5000.

a) it looks like you had a set, or maybe KJs, so you have FE.
b) you now got lots of outs for the river, assuming he actually calls you.

If he or MJ pushes, i'd call getting 2.5:1.


edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.

Not sure if that'll happen, but i think your FE is bigger now than it was on the flop.

[grandgnu]

If you're a risk-taker and you don't mind going home early, you can re-raise here or push, although you'll essentially be pot-committing yourself to the hand with lots of outs, but your entire tournament at risk.

I would likely "think" for awhile and smooth-call. I still have position, and can win if I hit on the river, or get away if I don't hit. A smooth-call might scare the CO into checking, depending on the river card, so you might get a free showdown.

I think most pro's would re-raise in this spot though, since they're interested in accumulating chips early instead of just struggling through as an average stack.

[Rduke55]

I like the raise to 5K.
Since it's 1/2 of our remaining stack or so it shows we are committed to this pot (with stacks as deep as these maybe "committed" is the wrong word - how about "dedicated?"). However anyone calling has to assume that we'll be putting the rest of our chips in on the river. And they should probably assume we're calling if they raise.
Our raise may look like we have a set or other big hand and are concerrned about the two clubs on board. There's also a slim chance that if the CO just calls us that he'll bluff at a 3rd club assuming we're afraid of it.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]

edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

More profitable than folding, that is. Just because a play is +EV doesn't make it the best play.

[jubeirm]

I don't think we have enough FE for it to work. Excluding re-raise and simplifing the river action I see this scenario:
<ul type="square">[*]Raise 5k: (1-y)% of time villains fold =&gt; net 3500[*]Raise 5k: y% of time CO calls and MJ folds...
(3/11) river a win. chk, bet, fold =&gt; net 8500
(8/11) river a loss. bet, fold =&gt; net -5000[/list]
We break even when
(1-y)(3500) + y[ (3/11)(8500) + (8/11)(-5000) ] = 0
y = 72.6%

So in this simple example we need a fold 27.3% of the time to break even. I don't think we are getting it nor can we make up the difference in the river play.

--Jubei

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
Best card in the deck (or worst) I'd raise to 5000.

a) it looks like you had a set, or maybe KJs, so you have FE.
b) you now got lots of outs for the river, assuming he actually calls you.

If he or MJ pushes, i'd call getting 2.5:1.


edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.

Not sure if that'll happen, but i think your FE is bigger now than it was on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're gonna bet half your stack here? Why not push?

[Exitonly]

I think pushing here looks wierd, and i know you're commited to call a push, but i think i like giving him the opportunit to just call, and then if we brick on the river we dont have to lose the rest, though we could try a bluff on the river, but i dont think i would.

[betgo]

I flat call. You have an open ended and a nut flush draw, but this is not that strong on the turn. The board is dangerous. You could easily be up aginst a straight, 2 pair, or a set. You are almost a 2-1 underdog against a pair. When you call, you hope the SB doesn't checkraise.

[grandgnu]

I like the re-raise to 5K as well though. It gives you two shots to win all those chips:

1. Your opponent goes away
2. You hit your draw on the river, and you have plenty of outs

I originally advocated betting the flop, because it would give us a better idea where we stood against our opponents, and allow us to risk 1K or so and get away without risking anymore chips. Now we might be putting in more than that and have allowed ourselves to be outdrawn, and we wind up putting our entire tournament at risk on a draw.