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  #1  
Old 11-27-2007, 05:08 PM
plzdontbanme plzdontbanme is offline
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Default presidential election

why isn't there a line on the election and why dont ppl bet on it?
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  #2  
Old 11-27-2007, 05:09 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

wsex.
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  #3  
Old 11-27-2007, 05:42 PM
Lori Lori is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

Betfair prices, so you likely can't get on, but as a guide:

Rep candidate:
Giuliani +122
Romney +265
Paul +1400
McCain +1500
Thompson +1900
Huckabee +1100

Dem:

Clinton -250
Obama +460
Gore +2300
Edwards +1850

President:

Dem -200
Rep +192
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  #4  
Old 11-27-2007, 05:46 PM
Rustjive Rustjive is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.
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  #5  
Old 11-27-2007, 05:59 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in something closer and doing a middle on something like a Clinton/Obama ticket v Repubs. I think that ticket is a crash and burn, Edwards has got to get on there for a chance.
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  #6  
Old 11-27-2007, 06:18 PM
Oatmeal Oatmeal is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

My gut says there is a lot of value on Romney at +265. To greatly minimize risk you could put 1u on Rudy at +122 and 1u on Romney at +265. I'd estimate that > 90% of the time one of these 2 gets the nod and if I were booking I'd have both at -105.
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  #7  
Old 11-27-2007, 06:31 PM
plzdontbanme plzdontbanme is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

or obama
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  #8  
Old 11-27-2007, 07:35 PM
Oatmeal Oatmeal is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

Yeah getting that much on Obama, probably has some value, but it's thin.
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  #9  
Old 11-27-2007, 07:58 PM
brendanb438 brendanb438 is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

Bottom line, do you guys think this country is ready to elect a female President?

I don't no matter how bad the Republican is.
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  #10  
Old 11-27-2007, 08:05 PM
coolmoedee coolmoedee is offline
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Default Re: presidential election

All republicans should burn for banning online gambling...all of them plus any other politician who wants to tell dumb yanks what to do.
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