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  #1  
Old 09-02-2007, 10:40 PM
jdp jdp is offline
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Default Is Party a good buy?

Party's numbers have been climbing strongly on PokerSiteScout and it's recent report was very encouraging - any thoughts on Party as an investment?
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  #2  
Old 09-03-2007, 01:22 AM
john voight john voight is offline
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Default Re: Is Party a good buy?

Party has said they are looking for revenue streams in Europe and china. Right now, I think the traffic comes to party organically (party is not reaching out to china, and say come play at party). *I Think*

Now, if they can tap into asia whil USA is comatose, and build up loyalty there, it could explode (if poker gets popular). Add in the fact that it may reopen to USA, and this stock would be flying high.

However IMO this is no guarantee. Its atempt to get popular in asia and russia, and other places my fail, and US govt might say "screw you party". In that case this stock would be not great IMO.

too bad you didnt buy PRTY 5 days ago huh?
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  #3  
Old 09-03-2007, 03:10 AM
jdp jdp is offline
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Default Re: Is Party a good buy?


Hasn't the US already said "screw you Party" with the UIGEA?
Thus any more bad news from the US should have litte effect, but letting Party back in would be a major positive.
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  #4  
Old 09-03-2007, 08:22 AM
john kane john kane is offline
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Default Re: Is Party a good buy?

I would disagree their player numbers are climbing strongly. Earlier this year they had months of around 20 days with 10,000+ players. Now they are getting a couple of days with that a month. Also the recent increase in the past few days is probably due to their daily grind promotion which encourages regulars to play loads for a few days to get a decent bonus (havent properly read it, just noticed it, so i may not be completely accurate).

party won't be coming back to the us, and they don't seem to be growing much in europe or asia. for me i'd sit back and wait for a more promising signal.

the lesson has been learnt by governments, they've seen how much money sites make, so i doubt many asians (or europeans as the way it's heading) countries will watch overseas companies take money potential tax revenue and money from their citizens. instead state run sites will be the option, if the governing body choose to allow poker to boom, which is doubtful.
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  #5  
Old 09-04-2007, 03:48 AM
jdp jdp is offline
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Default Re: Is Party a good buy?

Their numbers slumped around March, with a 7 day avge. around 4500 a couple weeks ago, but recently surged to around 5500, possibly because of their current promotion...
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  #6  
Old 09-04-2007, 10:09 AM
nachazlao nachazlao is offline
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Default Re: Is Party a good buy?

Have they not lost a small fortune over the last 6 months $47 million to be precise and that is on the back of a 83% increase in new sign ups from outside the U.S
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  #7  
Old 09-04-2007, 03:23 PM
APXG APXG is offline
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Default Re: Is Party a good buy?

Party shouldn't have much value in the long-term sense b.c. thinking back to Buffett, moats, and Coca Cola -- Party and online gaming in general have the opposite of that. Very low barriers to entry, still a very much developing profit landscape, and so so much that could happen that would obliterate them into obscurity. The chances of Party still being around in 5 years are very slim IMO -- there is/was nothing special about them other than that they got lucky in capturing the US market. While a year ago there was hope they could leverage this into other markets, it is becoming clear that such a hypothesis will turn out to be false.

Short term the shares are rather illiquid and thus could easily run up some ridiculous % on minor positive news that when coupled with memories of their high flying days and the relative discount they are trading at will spark a conatagious influx onto the long side. None of these people will be truly bullish of Party long term though, and thus the mini-boom will suffer the same fate as it did in the spring.

And I agree with john k that governments are highly unlikely to follow the US in their future policies towards gambling. Not only is there higher awareness of it than there was in the early 2000's, but also a clearer sense of potential profits. It is a guarantee that these revenue streams will no longer be left for 33 yr old Dikshits and sketchy porn queens.
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