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  #31  
Old 11-02-2007, 01:37 PM
SammySlim SammySlim is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

Good laydown no matter what he had. If he did that with a small/mid pair or AQ, nr sir. He had balls then, to risk his whole stack on the first hand of a final table on that kind of hand. I agree, however, that you have to consider $EV and fold here, as much as it sucks. It would surprise me, however, to see that at a live FT. My guess is a race at best but more likely behind QQ+. With your stack size, you will have better spots. Also curious to know how you came out. Very tough spot.

Cheers
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  #32  
Old 11-02-2007, 02:00 PM
dtf13 dtf13 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold and be really pissed about it and make a tilty resteal against Mark Seif with 103o, but he'd snap call me with J3 becuase he can see my cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, it is really funny that you say this.. I will get to it later

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 2 of final table (Very Next Hand):

Late position Limper for 3,000 (same plyr limped last hand, just trying to see flops, def. not strong)

Button: Seif raises to bout 12,000
SB (Me): AJs

Pot has $22,500 in it a this point, I have bout 85K, Seif covers with bout 215K (after raise) Avg. stack is about 80K.

In this spot I think I have the best hand like 90% of the time…. What is my play??
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  #33  
Old 11-02-2007, 02:32 PM
pped5700 pped5700 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

tilt shove
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  #34  
Old 11-02-2007, 02:56 PM
Stumpy Stumpy is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

[ QUOTE ]
i would think chip ev and dollar ev diverge here. shouldnt that be applicable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think this was true, so I ran ICM and I'm wrong.

ICM Numbers:
Hand Start - 30.8k
Fold - 27k
Call & Win - 45.5k
Call & Lose - 11k

So if you figure out the necessary Call&Win to Call&Lose ratio needed to equal 27k, it's 46.4%.
cEV wise, given the pot odds, you should only need 36% equity to call.

So it's a pretty big difference. JJ is 36% against QQ+,AK, but you'd need TT+,AQ+ to win 46% of the time.

I think you could have raised less. I doubt anyone plays it differently if you raise to 20k total.
Particularly if some of the limpers are the short stacks, they're going to either shove or fold to just about any raise.
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  #35  
Old 11-02-2007, 03:30 PM
kutuz_off kutuz_off is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

[ QUOTE ]
1) When he limped in I for some reason got the feeling he was strong....still..there is no way I am checking Js, because as I said b4 I have not played with him.


[/ QUOTE ]

Learn to trust your reads, man. If you felt he was strong, checking JJ for set value is probably the best play, precisely because he's gonna shove over your raise and you'll be left with posting this hand here. As played....fold. You can even fold this online sometimes. Live - always fold.
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  #36  
Old 11-02-2007, 04:05 PM
bowler bowler is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

http://www.cardplayer.com/tournaments/results/13482

Looks like you shoulda' shoved on that first hand. I'm assuming your screename corresponds somewhat with your real name. (Hindsight is 20/20).
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  #37  
Old 11-02-2007, 04:33 PM
jcm4ccc jcm4ccc is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.cardplayer.com/tournaments/results/13482

Looks like you shoulda' shoved on that first hand. I'm assuming your screename corresponds somewhat with your real name. (Hindsight is 20/20).

[/ QUOTE ] come on, that's irrelevant.

My advice to OP: stop beating yourself up. I think everybody agrees you made a small mistake in raising so much. But in reality that small mistake was probably not the reason you busted out on the next hand (I'm assuming that's what you did). [censored] happens. Let it go.
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  #38  
Old 11-02-2007, 04:38 PM
Todd Terry Todd Terry is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

I shove the second hand against Seif. He's super aggro so you're ahead of his range, and he could look you up very light because you just lost a big hand and could be steaming.
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  #39  
Old 11-02-2007, 04:55 PM
Ben86 Ben86 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

i know nothing about seif but it should be added in that if he's a weak player on your right with all of the chips this is more of a fold.
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  #40  
Old 11-02-2007, 08:21 PM
flyingmoose flyingmoose is offline
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Default Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

In the second hand I would either shove or make it 34k planning to shove any flop if called.
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