I'm at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!

[SammySlim]

Good laydown no matter what he had. If he did that with a small/mid pair or AQ, nr sir. He had balls then, to risk his whole stack on the first hand of a final table on that kind of hand. I agree, however, that you have to consider $EV and fold here, as much as it sucks. It would surprise me, however, to see that at a live FT. My guess is a race at best but more likely behind QQ+. With your stack size, you will have better spots. Also curious to know how you came out. Very tough spot.

Cheers

[dtf13]

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I'd fold and be really pissed about it and make a tilty resteal against Mark Seif with 103o, but he'd snap call me with J3 becuase he can see my cards.

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Wow, it is really funny that you say this.. I will get to it later

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Hand 2 of final table (Very Next Hand):

Late position Limper for 3,000 (same plyr limped last hand, just trying to see flops, def. not strong)

Button: Seif raises to bout 12,000
SB (Me): AJs

Pot has $22,500 in it a this point, I have bout 85K, Seif covers with bout 215K (after raise) Avg. stack is about 80K.

In this spot I think I have the best hand like 90% of the time…. What is my play??

[pped5700]

tilt shove

[Stumpy]

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i would think chip ev and dollar ev diverge here. shouldnt that be applicable.

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I didn't think this was true, so I ran ICM and I'm wrong.

ICM Numbers:
Hand Start - 30.8k
Fold - 27k
Call & Win - 45.5k
Call & Lose - 11k

So if you figure out the necessary Call&Win to Call&Lose ratio needed to equal 27k, it's 46.4%.
cEV wise, given the pot odds, you should only need 36% equity to call.

So it's a pretty big difference. JJ is 36% against QQ+,AK, but you'd need TT+,AQ+ to win 46% of the time.

I think you could have raised less. I doubt anyone plays it differently if you raise to 20k total.
Particularly if some of the limpers are the short stacks, they're going to either shove or fold to just about any raise.

[kutuz_off]

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1) When he limped in I for some reason got the feeling he was strong....still..there is no way I am checking Js, because as I said b4 I have not played with him.


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Learn to trust your reads, man. If you felt he was strong, checking JJ for set value is probably the best play, precisely because he's gonna shove over your raise and you'll be left with posting this hand here. As played....fold. You can even fold this online sometimes. Live - always fold.

[bowler]

http://www.cardplayer.com/tournaments/results/13482

Looks like you shoulda' shoved on that first hand. I'm assuming your screename corresponds somewhat with your real name. (Hindsight is 20/20).

[jcm4ccc]

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http://www.cardplayer.com/tournaments/results/13482

Looks like you shoulda' shoved on that first hand. I'm assuming your screename corresponds somewhat with your real name. (Hindsight is 20/20).

[/ QUOTE ] come on, that's irrelevant.

My advice to OP: stop beating yourself up. I think everybody agrees you made a small mistake in raising so much. But in reality that small mistake was probably not the reason you busted out on the next hand (I'm assuming that's what you did). [censored] happens. Let it go.

[Todd Terry]

I shove the second hand against Seif. He's super aggro so you're ahead of his range, and he could look you up very light because you just lost a big hand and could be steaming.

[Ben86]

i know nothing about seif but it should be added in that if he's a weak player on your right with all of the chips this is more of a fold.

[flyingmoose]

In the second hand I would either shove or make it 34k planning to shove any flop if called.