TKo's Hand of the Day: Playing Overcards Near SNG Bubble.

[yNnOs]

As played, I think you can still get away by c/f. You aren't committed to this flop, and even though villain appears loose, you still have to respect the bigger stack. Even more so when you know, that they know, you could hurt them just as much.

I like the idea of reraising to 1600 OOP against a loose opening raiser, especially short-handed. Its just the right size. After raising to 1600 and a call by villain, the pot stands at 3300, and your stack at about 3000. I think this line makes it a much clearer to shove on the flop, as any continuation is over 1/2 your stack.

[Win.by.TKo]

[ QUOTE ]
To quote SunTzu:

"It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten to the enemy's one, to surround him; if five to one, to attack him. If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him."

[/ QUOTE ]

This is certainly an interesting concept as it applies to poker. However, if the enemy scout perceives a larger opposing army then what is present, the enemy may employ an incorrect strategy, like 'if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy.' In war, perception is reality.

It really is a solid quote, though. I have included it in my 'Notes to Live By.' Thanks.

[Win.by.TKo]

OK, looks like all the responses are in. Villain had T9o and had flopped trips.

I am now playing much tighter at final tables, thinking plays like this and overthinking is a leak needing a permanent fix.

[Gar Pike]

I'm thinking here that the size of the army corresponds to stack size. Not much you can do about misrepresenting that.

You would need to have superior weapons for your army to prevail, and while AQo is a pretty good weapon, by itself (i.e. unimproved) I don't think it's anything to get frisky with. Think, standing up and challenging the Chinese Army with an AK47.

I agree, if you can misrepresent the strength of your hand, you might get a fold, but a) if he doesn't respect the hurt you can lay on him (think "stack sizes") and b) you aren't all that sure you can hurt him (think "unimproved A-high" post flop), I'm folding this without much thought after that flop. And I'
m just calling Pre, hoping for a flop I like. That's what, a 5%-of-stack call of a min-raise with AQ? Not too unreasonable...

Regards,

Gar "The Cautious" Pike

PS, there's a lot more in Art of War that can be applied to poker. Mr. Sklansky did a reprise, just for that purpose. Might be in the Archives.