NL50 - 3bet pot AQ vs tag, turn ?

[RyanCMU]

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Villain is a standard NL50 TAG 19/13/3, Decent PF stats, but has some obvious leaks, that you can just tell are prevelant from watching him play. Notes read; "Can't fold an overpair 200bb deep on a 456 flop."

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($47.35)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($65)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($63.75)</font>
BB ($39.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4.50.

Flop: ($13.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10.50</font>, Button calls $10.50.

Turn: ($34.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

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Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $20.00</font>, Hero calls $20.00.

River: ($74.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Check/Fold? Check/Call? Shove?


***Edited to add: That I forgot to include my table image in the original post, and I think that may be important here. I was running at 19/15 at the table, and villain likely has me at similar to those stats if he has PT and PAhud. We also have no real history or significant pots vs. each other. *****

[mvdgaag]

Checking this turn would leave us with $50 and a $34 pot on the river... Villain could put a lot of pressure on us if a heart comes. He might hold AK or the flush, so checking here is like giving up on the hand and hoping for a cheap showdown, which is not too bad IMO, with a dominated hands like AQ. I like betting the $20 on turn better though.

Quickly push river. Since we only have 1/2 psb left if he has us beat we are paying off anyways. If we check/fold this we seriously misplayed the hand by betting the turn IMO. We might as well put it in ourselves, since taking the pot from AK on a bluff is better than check/calling. The other hands will get our money anyways from this point if they beat us and we don't mind a weaker ace folding or even calling.

EDIT: meh, maybe i like c/c turn better. Gives us a chance to show it down cheap and fold on a heart river.

[EvanJC]

c/c turn, i dunno what i like on the river.

[wooziephantom]

He has an extremely good read on you if u c/c the turn and if he's good he might be able to push u off this hand on the river... Lead out again, bet 2/3 or slightly less... If he calls again, then I think there's a big probably for him checking behind on the river... If he push river after ur check well then we got a decision, and with ur read a call might be correct here.. But as mentioned I think he'll check behind most times...

[crunchi]

River looks like an easy c/f.

Betting has no value or FE in my opinion. And there are very few hands that villain will bet with as a bluff.

I would like to check/call flop here. If he checks behind on flop, bet turn. If he bets flop and you call, I doubt he will fire another bullet without AK.

[mvdgaag]

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I would like to check/call flop here. If he checks behind on flop, bet turn. If he bets flop and you call, I doubt he will fire another bullet without AK.

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NH