abusing bad TAG players preflop [theory]

[matrix]

I'm trying to get my head around ways to open my game up a little and take more small/medum pots away from bad TAG regulars at the tables I play so that I don't continue being a mediocre break even bad TAG player myself. I'd love to get SSNL's thoughts on some preflop scenarios.

Some situationsall villains here are mcTAGs 20/15/3ish with Attempt to Steal %'s in the low 30's that we have a decent chunk of mined data on) - Heros image is ~20/17/3 similar but a little more aggressive)

i) CO opens 4bb - Hero is OTB with trash like 84o or w/e and 3bets pot. Hero has position if called and will probably take the pot down on OK flops with a CB.

is this is a profitable play in a vacuum? what kind of flops are better to CB Is this only profitable because of the image it creates so that when we 3bet a real hand we get a to more action... ? Or is this just a bad plan?

ii) BTN opens and we 3bet same kind of hand from the blinds - same questions.

Obv we'd be doing this sparingly (approximately how often is a ogod frequency? - or is that totally villain dependant) - but overall is playing more 3bet pots IP vs regulars a good idea if we assume that we play postflop at least as good as the villain does and so position gives us a good edge.

Once this goes "wrong" - say we 3bet IP with air - are flat called preflop and then villain c/r our 3bet all-in. Should we make much of an adjustment and tighten up 3betting considerably afterwards for x orbits or wait until this happens more than once?

[ikestoys]

you don't need to do this with 84 to beat bad tags.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't need to do this with 84 to beat bad tags.

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That doesn't imply that the play is incorrect

[chiTown22]

Question to ask yourself each time.

What is the purpose of my 3bet?

Trying to 3bet X percentage of the time regardless of your hand does not make sense to me. Aggression is good, aggression with no purpose behind it is spew.

However, I have been called a Nit, ABC tag, Aggo Donk, and other names not worth repeating.

[matrix]

in the examples above the purpose of my 3bet is to win a small/medium pot preflop or on the flop from a TAG player who I think is opening a wide range that will likely miss the flop and he won't be able to profitably continue postflop OOP vs me.

I am not trying to 3bet x% - I spose another way of asking this is - if we think TAG in LP is opening a wide range of hands do we only 3bet IP/OOP if we think we are ahead of that range - or when we "sense weakness" are fairly sure that the hand won't make it past the flop and so our cards as they are very unlikely to get to SD don't really matter?

Am I missing the point somehwere entirely and are there better ways to steal small/medium pots vs bad TAG players?

I figured I'd start with preflop cos it's the easiest street to play.

[chiTown22]

[ QUOTE ]
in the examples above the purpose of my 3bet is to win a small/medium pot preflop or on the flop from a TAG player who I think is opening a wide range that will likely miss the flop and he won't be able to profitably continue postflop OOP vs me.

I am not trying to 3bet x% - I spose another way of asking this is - if we think TAG in LP is opening a wide range of hands do we only 3bet IP/OOP if we think we are ahead of that range - or when we "sense weakness" are fairly sure that the hand won't make it past the flop and so our cards as they are very unlikely to get to SD don't really matter?

Am I missing the point somehwere entirely and are there better ways to steal small/medium pots vs bad TAG players?

I figured I'd start with preflop cos it's the easiest street to play.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I understand you correctly you are hoping to exploit the fact that in general a person will miss a flop ~60% of the time. i.e. they fold prefop or they miss and fold to your cbet.

Consider this, when they call preflop.
4BB open
~12BB 3bet
call
~25BB pot
check
c-bet ~18-20BB

you risk ~30BB to win ~12. If this play works ~60% of the time you will lose money. Obviously this is very fuzzy math and there are a tons of variables, but in general 3betting air with the plan to win without showdown is -EV.

[ellington1641]

If I understand this correctly, you're not making the right comparison. You want to know if a c-bet is profitable GIVEN that your 3-bet has been called. In this case, you risk 18-20 bb to win the 25 bb pot, which obviously IS profitable given a 60% success rate. To consider the profitability of 3-betting, you want to take into account the profit that you get from a fold pre-flop. You're not just exploiting the fact that the flop will be missed 60% of the time, you're also exploiting the fact that some % of the time players in front of you are raising with hands they can't call a 3-bet with. So say that there's a p% chance of getting a fold pre-flop. Your EV = p(4bb)+(1-p)(.6(12bb)+.4(-30bb)). I'm assuming an 18bb c-bet, and the bb and sb given away to the rake. I'm also assuming that you NEVER flop the best hand. So surely your actual EV is higher than this, probably much higher since the times that you do have the best hand are likely to show a lot of profit. This is assuming you don't get silly when you flop middle pair with a seven kicker and try to bluff out AA or top set or something like that.
Anyway, the above EV is greater than zero as long as p>54.5%. So if you're getting folds from your 3-bets at that rate or greater, it's a good play (although maybe not the best one). If you are good at reading when to c-bet, and good at extracting maximum value out of times when you flop monsters, etc., then obviously you would require a lower p to make this play profitably.

[ QUOTE ]

If I understand you correctly you are hoping to exploit the fact that in general a person will miss a flop ~60% of the time. i.e. they fold prefop or they miss and fold to your cbet.

Consider this, when they call preflop.
4BB open
~12BB 3bet
call
~25BB pot
check
c-bet ~18-20BB

you risk ~30BB to win ~12. If this play works ~60% of the time you will lose money. Obviously this is very fuzzy math and there are a tons of variables, but in general 3betting air with the plan to win without showdown is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

[chiTown22]

In no way do I disagree that 3betting is +EV. My post was an attempt to give a conceptually example of why 3betting pure air such as 84o can be –EV.

On a side note, I don't logically agree with evaluating a play at the moment. i.e. “In this case, you risk 18-20 bb to win the 25 bb pot”

Half of that pot is your money. Looking at the hand as a whole you are putting 30BB in the middle to gain 12 if successful. Where is my logic flawed?

[chiTown22]

EV = p(4bb)+(1-p)(.6(12bb)+.4(-30bb)). p>54.5% = EV

Just thinking about this more. What Percentage of the time are your 3bets called? In my experience its easiliy more than half, I would say its pushing 60%, which is a pure guess-timate. This leads me to believe in the current 6max games the perception of a light 3bet has made a tight 3betting range more profitable.

[vetiver]

I would consider using this move if you are a TAGish player yourself and you have not been 3betting villain with much frequency this session.

Forcing it with 84o off, though, strikes me as a -EV move long run. I think what tilts the scale is the possibility of blinds or villain coming over the top w/ 4bet and you not even seeing the flop. As previous poster mentioned, doing this with suited connectors or 1/2 gappers drastically increases EV.

I think the most interesting part of OP's move is thinking about how much showing down 84o (when you hit straight or trips on flop) will confuse your opponent a lot and make them play marginal hands much more aggressively against your future 3bets [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]