55k hand, squeeze against ricestud

[tubasteve]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP1 (t12369)
MP2 (t59986)
CO (t43420)
Button (t31044)
SB (t47628)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t38988)</font>
UTG (t79392)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 (t99591)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t9000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t9000, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t38688</font>


stars 55k $10r, there are 118 players left on a $10 money bubble. ricestud has been running over the table since the bubble and the whole time we've been ITM. hes running at like 17/15, and has been raising a lot in EP. i have been tight, and whenever i raised either ricestud or the guy on my left would 3-bet and i had to fold. this happened like 3-4 times since the bubble broke. i have only shown down premium hands, the worst of which being AQs. the coldcaller is passive and i'm not worried about him.

ricestud made a weird play early in the tourney. he had 5k chips after getting stacked and rebuying/adding on. in a $300 limped pot with KJ he coldcalled a $7k allin vs KT on KTx, and turned a J to double up. i think he was tilting, either way it was one of the worst plays ive ever seen by a well-known mtt player.

well you can see my play, we like or not?

[levAA]

you got good reads on villains and the proper image.

only your stack size could be a bit larger, but as it can hurt UTG+1 (costing him nearly half his stack) it's still on the green side.

so i think this is a good spot for a squeeze.

[swede554]

I'd like it more if you had around 50-60k. He is getting close to 2-1 and will still have a decent stack if he calls and loses so he might decide to look you up light here.

[Pokerfarian]

Don't like it -- stack size too small -- no or little FE

[black666]

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Don't like it -- stack size too small -- no or little FE

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[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't like it -- stack size too small -- no or little FE

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im only putting in 41% of the money, and my equity vs a calling range of like 88+,AT+,KQ is like 33%. With ricestud opening pretty light you dont think I make up the extra 8% with FE? That's a pretty tight calling range too.

[Stumpy]

You only need 39.5% equity to break even. (You're the BB, so you're putting in 35,688 to win 90,276)

I can't see him calling tighter than top 10% getting 2:1.

If he calls you with top 10%, you need him to fold 14% of the time (Raising 11.6%/folding 1.6%) to break even.
Since it appears he's raising 15%, this should be ok.
You do specifically mention he was opening quite a bit in EP, but you have to assume that 15% favors LP.

If he calls wider than top 15% you're break-even, so the worry is just if his raising range is tighter and he's calling with almost all of it.

You also can't completely discount MP2 calling if UTG+1 folds.

So it's close based on your information.
You'd have to be very far off on your read for shoving to be more than -1.5 BB though.