50nl - Does this look like a bluff to snap off?

badatmath · #1 11-11-2007, 02:21 AM

I should have bet more on turn, I know. I usually don't see villains bluff so big, but he could think I'll be afraid of trip 2's and fold a Q, and I couldn't see him having a 2 or just calling flop and turn with a set. I think KJ, AhJh, and AhKh seem most likely here. What do you think?

Thanks, Matt

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($118)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($27.60)
UTG ($29.50)
UTG+1 ($50.40)
MP1 ($48.25)
MP2 ($40.90)
MP3 ($39)
CO ($51.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.5, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($3.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $2, Hero raises to $6, MP1 calls $4.

Turn: ($15.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $8, MP1 calls $8.

River: ($31.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $32.75 (All-In), Hero calls $32.75.

Final Pot: $97.25

Das Budrick · #2 11-11-2007, 02:47 AM

I would fold it. This more like a weird value bet than a bluff. do you have a read on villain, any stats or history that tell you he bluffs like this?

badatmath · #3 11-11-2007, 02:54 AM

He hadn't bluffed yet, but I had just won $60 from him in 2 pots within the last 10 minutes where he called flop and turn and folded river, so he he could have been a little tilted and not want to lose to me again.

BigDan9 · #4 11-11-2007, 05:53 AM

I think I'd fold like the pussy I am without more of a read on the guy. I'd also like to know that Villain is capable of big bluffs before calling in a spot like this. Once you know that, I guess it just comes down to deciding whether there's at least a 1 in 3 chance of him being on a bluff. If so, go ahead and call.

I agree with your reading of his possible hands, but he could easily be one of those guys who slow-plays his big hands like a donkey...

SABR42 · #5 11-11-2007, 05:56 AM

Actually AA or KK make a lot of sense. He was afraid of two pair, but the river duece counterfeited lower two pairs so he shoves.

I don't like your line. I wouldn't raise the flop, and I would bet more on the turn as played.

badatmath · #6 11-11-2007, 07:04 AM

When I have top pair on a drawy flop I like to raise to find out where I'm at. I figure that if I get reraised I'm usually beat and if they just call then I tend to put them on a draw or a hand that I can probably get them off of. How do you think in these spots, SABR?

Thanks, Matt

SABR42 · #7 11-11-2007, 07:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When I have top pair on a drawy flop I like to raise to find out where I'm at.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is usually a bad reason to raise.

[ QUOTE ]
I figure that if I get reraised I'm usually beat and if they just call then I tend to put them on a draw or a hand that I can probably get them off of.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I'm villain in your hand, I'm usually 3-bet shoving the nut flush draw or some other big draw to try to make you fold the hand you were "raising to find out where you were at." Do you see the problem with your line now?

RyanCMU · #8 11-11-2007, 07:19 AM

Problem is he plays AJhh, KJhh, and AKhh way faster then he did. Those are 2 very strong hands on this board and he certainly would play them quicker I would think. So I think we can rule them out of his range.

His hand looks like AA/KK or AQ.

If he did have one of those super strong combo draws then you got lucky on your call, and you need to make a note that villain is capable of not palying his mega strong draws fast.

Overall, this is just such a wierd line for a hand like KJ or AJ or AK (non hearts) to have taken, and only KJ really makes much sense and even then, I think its just too unlikely. I think he is much more likely to show up w/ a hand like QJ, then he is to have turned his non combo draws into pure bluffs. PLus even if he got goofy and played KQ really odd that still beats us also.

SABR42's post abotu your logic for raising the flop is spot on.

AllTheCheese · #9 11-11-2007, 01:13 PM

Fold preflop IMO. Flat-call this flop. As played, check-back the turn. I can't see turning top pair into a bluff on the turn. Plus, a big bet more or less commits if he stackadonks, and I'm never really a fan of betting $40 to win $16.

badatmath · #10 11-11-2007, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When I have top pair on a drawy flop I like to raise to find out where I'm at.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is usually a bad reason to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but it's not the only reason. I also figure to have the best hand, so shouldn't I deny him a free card to beat me?

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure that if I get reraised I'm usually beat and if they just call then I tend to put them on a draw or a hand that I can probably get them off of.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I'm villain in your hand, I'm usually 3-bet shoving the nut flush draw or some other big draw to try to make you fold the hand you were "raising to find out where you were at." Do you see the problem with your line now?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he shoves with those too, his range is still way ahead of me.

Board: Qh 2d Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.929% 29.40% 04.53% 20372 3141.00 { QdJd }
Hand 1: 66.071% 61.54% 04.53% 42646 3141.00 { QQ+, TT, 22, AhKh, AQs, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KJs+, QTs+, Jh9h, AQo, KJo+, QTo+ }

I'm also making the same raise w/ AQ, combo draws, and sets, and calling a shove.

I've always thought that putting $6 in on the flop and finding out if I'm beat in this spot is better than $2 on flop, $4 on turn, and facing a river bet without a clue. By raising I give him the chance to fold the flop, and I get the momentum and the chance to push him out again. Is it more +ev to just get to showdown as cheaply as possible?

Thanks, Matt