$10 Stars rebuy - Overpair JJ on the flop - hand checkup

[BlueBear]

Villain is 19/12/3.0 in 40 hands, no other reads. Still a long way from the bubble. I have a very tight image. A fold on the flop is standard here or should I be gambling?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t8478)
Hero (t16920)
MP3 (t7959)
CO (t12342)
Button (t1174)
SB (t18545)
BB (t9210)
UTG (t14977)
UTG+1 (t37795)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1800</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls t1500, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t3700) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t3000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t10200</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t9700

[Dunkman]

I couldn't fold here, if he has a set then nh. I can't imagine him playing QQ-AA like this from the SB, and I can't imagine him having a 2 pair or whatever. So in order to fold here we're saying that the majority of villain's flop c/r range is sets...I don't buy it. I'd shove it in and expect to see draws and smaller pairs a lot.

[black666]

I shove this.

There are so many silly draws and enough hands we beat out there. Overpair, straight draw, flush draw, overcards, bluffs that figure you FOS.

This is probably the best flop you could hope for with your jacks. If villain has a set, more power to him for playing it so fast ... most people slowplay them and shove on a scary turn or wait until the river.

With ~25% of my stack invested, I never fold an overpair on a non-scary flop HU.

[wizard]

That is way too conservative for me and I am too conservative to often have a big stack at bubble time. I like a push after the flop just because the board has so many potential draws and JJ is still vulnerable to over cards.
As played, I'm guessing a pp or a draw w/fold equity but I am still never laying it down. If he has an overpair or set, nice hand and tuff timing. Next tourney please!

[ssnyc]

are you folding because you think he has a better hand or just because the heavy aggression scared you?

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
That is way too conservative for me and I am too conservative to often have a big stack at bubble time. I like a push after the flop just because the board has so many potential draws and JJ is still vulnerable to over cards.
As played, I'm guessing a pp or a draw w/fold equity but I am still never laying it down. If he has an overpair or set, nice hand and tuff timing. Next tourney please!

[/ QUOTE ]

Please tell me you mean shove over the c/r and not open shove the flop (open shoving the flop is beyond terrible.)

[ssnyc]

wizard...sometimes things get scarey but you can't sacrifice value to take fear out of the equation...post flop poker is important and I like OP's line up to the "Hero Folds" part

[wizard]

Yes, I meant to shove over the cr or instead of the cbet. I agree that a pre flop all in is very wrong.

[levAA]

if you are not sure - simple go by pot-odds - if the pot is that big (about 17k) and you have about 12k left with an overpair i can't see a fold.