6.50 45-seat : AKs fold?

MVPaul · #1 08-09-2007, 04:29 PM

I'm really not sure about this one... my thinking was the huge reraise meant mid pair so I don't want to push and flip this early in the tourney. Call and try to flop something? Not to mention the 2 guys who have yet to act.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t1500)
Button (t1460)
SB (t1460)
Hero (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1580)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t20, MP1 raises to t80, MP2 calls t80, MP3 raises to t620, 4 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: t290

thanks

themobfather · #2 08-09-2007, 04:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
my thinking was the huge reraise meant mid pair so I don't want to push and flip this early in the tourney. Call and try to flop something?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is fundamentally wrong thinking.
its push or fold, and the reason for folding shouldn't be because you don't want to flip this early.

sapsuckah · #3 08-09-2007, 04:50 PM

This raise is obviously a bet from someone who doesn't know what they're doing. Given that (and that it's a $6.50), he could be doing this with a very wide range: medium pairs, weaker aces, even bizarro stuff like KQ.

What I think is unlikely is AA/KK. Most weaker players will make smaller raises to try to keep you in, while some will push preflop in hopes that someone will want to gamble and come along.

So I think your AKs is ahead of his range and warrants a push.

But let's say you're right and it's a medium pair, say 99 or TT. Your AKs has 47% equity vs 99 and about 46% vs TT. If you push and he calls, the pot will be your 1500, his 1500, 160 from the first two in, and 10 from the SB or 3170. So you're betting 1500 to win 1670... so you'll need to win 47% of the time to break even (exactly the odds you need). Again this is if you're SURE he's on a medium pair.

But, like I said, I think his range is a lot wider than that and includes lots of A's weaker than yours. Plus, there's even a small chance at this buyin level that he may fold to your push.

Conclusion: instapush.

Edit: Oh, and not to mention the fact that doubling early puts you in great position to go deep, while busting early is preferable to whittling downward for a while and busting in 12th.

KneeCo · #4 08-09-2007, 04:51 PM

SHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE, he can easily have AQ+/TT+ and given your hand and his range I think he has you crushed here very rarely.

ssnyc · #5 08-09-2007, 05:27 PM

in a low buyin SNGish event I take this flip happily...he doesnt have AA/ KK and could be frisky with AQ (I know but we see it enough)...chips=valuable tool if used properly..just push

MVPaul · #6 08-10-2007, 12:08 AM

thanks for the responses, I realized I played the hand wrong after I folded but I didn't think that the push would have that much of an edge.
By the way, does anyone like playing in these 45 seat, turbo SNGs or are they just too much of a mess?

SuperUberBob · #7 08-10-2007, 01:58 AM

I play the turbos sometimes and do generally well in them. You really have to be willing to roll the dice later in the tournaments. At the FT, even the biggest stacks are in Harrington's orange zone. A lot of turbo players don't adjust well to bigger blinds, so you can capitalize by stealing their blinds like crazy.