30/60 tricky spot vs. opp w/ a lot of history

[GoodCallYouWin]

Qdxd seems likely, I think you can fold because there is no way he thinks you'll give him credit for backdooring you.

[DrewOnTilt]

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Qdxd seems likely, I think you can fold because there is no way he thinks you'll give him credit for backdooring you.

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Wouldn't an ABC player who just made a backdoor draw go for a check/raise here? His line makes no sense to me...unless Villain thinks that Hero bet Ace high twice on this board.

[Adebisi]

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't an ABC player who just made a backdoor draw go for a check/raise here? His line makes no sense to me...unless Villain thinks that Hero bet Ace high, or 66-TT, or JT-J8 twice on this board.

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Either call and expect to lose ~75% of the time (still a +ev call) or raise and turn your hand into a bluff, which might be more +ev since I think he has a weak Q here quite a bit. It just depends on whether he's bet/calling or bet/folding QT or Q8s here/. How fishy was the coldcaller? The worse the coldcaller plays, the more weak Q's bb likely has in his range.

The viability of turning your hand into a bluff depends on how tenacious a value bettor your are. If you would always raise QT+ on this river, a bluff is much more likely to work than it would if you only value raise 2 pair+

[Bill King]

i think raising is rediculous.. that turns a slightly marginal valued call into a spew when he calls/3-bets.. not to mention the guy behind

[Adebisi]

He's bet/folding this river less than 12% of the time?