AK vs. Suited JT strategy debate

[Any2ForU]

I had a hand in a $500 Ultimate Poker Challenge MTT at The Plaza that has been hotly debated between friends. Here's the situation:

Background:
A player three to my left was continuously re-raising my raises and forcing me to make some pretty big lay downs in the previous 2 hours. I had a pretty good read on him and knew he was capable of doing that with pretty marginal hands. I believe the blinds were $100/$200 with a $25 ante and around $1,900 in chips. At this stage he had me covered by a pretty comfortable margin.

Hand:
Everyone folded around to me in the cutoff and I had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. At this point my decision was to either make a standard raise to $600-$650 leaving me with about $1,300 and give him the opportunity to try and make another play against me in which I would be forced to gamble as a slight favorite (58.8% vs. 41.2%) with the possibility of being eliminated just short of the money, or raise all-in and take that play out of his hands (which is what I did). After going in the tank a little and then agonizing over having to fold the hand he showed the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Debate:
My position to avoid the confrontation in face of elimination appears to be opposed by a few of my friends. Their feeling is that I should have made the standard raise and enticed the guy to play against me as a dog. They feel that it would be better to try and accumulate more chips as a favorite in that position. My question to that theory is: How many times in a tournament do you want to take that gamble for all of your chips? I'm not certain of the math, but, you can only lose that gamble once and you're done. My guess is you could probably only mathematically take that gamble between 2 or 3 times before you are likely to lose one of them (anyone know this probability?). My contention is that I would rather pick up the blinds and the antes in that spot and look for better spots to make plays and accumulate chips and possibly take a confrontation as a bigger favorite later.

Result:
I went on to take 4th. If I play that hand differently I either would have doubled up and maybe went on to win it, or I could have lost that hand and been done.

Which play would you make and why? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ononimo]

why do you assume that raising all-in will necessarily avoid a confrontation?

[adanthar]

This only works if you then 'properly' check behind and fold the turn on, say, a J42 flop.

When he only proceeds when he hits the flop (a safe assumption), you're giving yourself reverse implied odds with that raise and a push is probably better.

Note that QQ is a different story, although you might still push it to avoid tipping off your opponents (if they have to think about calling 10 BB with JTs, pushing it is good.)

[betgo]

If you made a standard raise and villain reraised you allin, you would be getting more than 2-1 pot odds to call. I don't see why he would think he could make you fold by reraising. I don't think it matters too much.

If you had 3000, you could raise to 600 hoping someone would come over top. You could also make an overbet push with a small pair, KQ, or something, so no one would think you would fold and so you don'thave to play a flop.

[Any2ForU]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you assume that raising all-in will necessarily avoid a confrontation?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't completely. If he wants to play I'm willing to play against him with the small edge. I just don't want to give him the false sense that he can re-raise me off a blind steal and then take a close race for my tournament life. Which he's demonstrated repeatedly that he likes to do.

[Any2ForU]

[ QUOTE ]
This only works if you then 'properly' check behind and fold the turn on, say, a J42 flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This player (and I think the better play) would not call pre-flop and see the flop. He would re-raise me all in and put the pressure back on me. I'm almost certain of it. I don't remember if my stack size was exactly 1900 relative to the 100/200 blinds, but, I believe it was such that it would have given him the thought that he could re-raise me off the hand if my hand wasn't as strong as AK & if it was stronger...oh well, he had the chips to take a race and "get lucky". The key here was that I wanted to take that play away from him, rather than, gamble.

[davidross]

Normally this is an easy push, but given what you have described, I would make the 3X raise and pray he comes over the top. Seems like an excellent chance he might make a move with Ax putting you in great shape. Unless you think you have a huge edge on the field you want to encourage a showdowm here with a guy who you feel will try and push you off a hand. The added bonus is if you double through him is that he's likely to leave you alone for a while.

[Village Idiot]

[ QUOTE ]
If you made a standard raise and villain reraised you allin, you would be getting more than 2-1 pot odds to call. I don't see why he would think he could make you fold by reraising.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. If anyone raises pre flop for almost 1/3 of their stack like you did here, my first thought as villain would be monster hand that wants action. AA-QQ or AKs, maybe even JJ.

Unless you think villain has some kind of different read on you or isn't thinking enough to see this then I like the standard rasie here.
With your read on villain, I make the bet to entice him into making a mistake.

[betgo]

With AK, you really want to take the pot and don't want action. AK is 3-1 against Ax and Kx, but 3-2 against JTs and behind a small pp.

In this case, if you raise 1/3 of your stack, it may give the impression you have a big hand and want action or you or stealing with junk and representing a big hand. You could also be a fish who hasn't read 2+2, Harrington, McEvoy, etc.

[betgo]

If you want action and you have 9xBB, don't raise 1/3 of your stack. Limp or miniraise from mid position. With AK, don't mind taking the blinds, but this is viable with QQ-AA.

It is better if you also limp with hands like suited connectors, medium aces, and broadway cards. Maybe you sometimes limp and fold to a raise. Then people get in the habit of coming over top of you. Also, you way be able to limp with marginal hands and steal the pot after the flop. If you are a better player than the competition, limping complicatres things.