Probability Question for David Sklansky

[Borodog]

Others are welcome as well, but David is the master of these sorts of problems, so I'd like to hear his response.

Two of my students missed Test 4 and had to take a makeup. They took the test at the same time, in the same room, sitting at the same table. The test on the left is the male's, the test on the right the female's. He got 14/19, she 15/19. His previous test scores are significantly better than hers. In case you can't tell from the picture, on her test, on number 11 she had originally selected D, but then erased it and chose C. The girl is of above average attractiveness.

What is the probability that cheating occurred?