$25 NL facing a river raise

[z28dreams]

Your line looks ok to me - you can bet a little less on the flop (not a big deal).

Let's think about the villains stats - 50/12/1

50 vpip - This guy plays a lot of hands, and it's a blind battle, he could be holding almost ATC here.

12 pfr - This is on the tighter end of preflop raising, but I've tried a style around this range. He'd probably re-raise big overpairs here preflop (AA,KK,etc)

1 ag - He's really passive. A turn raise from someone with this is a lot of trouble.

Flop - c-bet is standard

Turn - I think you have to bet here for value - he could have any J or 9 on the flop that just called.

River - This is a lot closer. I like a check, here's why (my original thought was value bet, but I have new reasoning

Betting the river:

Pros: prevents a big bluff, we have showdown value

Cons: We're behind almost all other Ax combos. AK, AJ, A9, A7 we're ahead of. We tie AQ. We only are really beating A8 and AT here, and neither make a lot of sense because he called your flop bet.

Checking the river:
Pros: Pot control, might induce a bluff from a weird draw hand
Cons: Might miss value if he's a total moron with something like JT.

I like a check/call. If you do bet, go smaller, like 1/2 pot.

[sww]

z28dreams, villain is loose/passive, not going to valuebet worse and bluffs very rarely. If you think we are beaten most often: check/fold, if we have any value: bet/fold or even bet/call, right? Why are you all even considering check/calling...

Another point though. AF=1 is a bit more than usually due the overall looseness.

Third point: The valuetarget is not Ax but Jx type of hands, he is capable of making that call I'm sure.

[crovax4444]

Alright, this was my analysis, after the hand:

Looking at the stats, it seems like he's the type of player who calls and sees a lot of hands, but folds them on the flop when they don't hit. Hence the reason why he has such crazy PF stats yet I don't seem to be bumping into him.

This means that him calling the c-bet means he most likely he's hit something. I'll put his range anywhere from a floped straight, set, two pair, top pair, possiblly 2nd pair and gutshots. I feel as though he'll raise big hands PF, so he doesn't have QQ+, and prob not JJ (but any set will beat me anyways). Basically, either I'm WA/WB on this flop.

Turn comes and I now value bet and he calls. At this point, he's folding any gutshots and 2nd pairs. He still could be holding TP

River - Now that I've narrowed his range down, it consists of hands that beat me, and pretty much nothing else. By calling the turn, he dropped hands like A8 and AT, leaving the only hand I beat being KJ. This is a c/f situation, and my river bet was a mistake

If there isn't anything wrong with my analysis, I'll post the results here in a few hours

Crovax

[wslee00]

i think you are way overthinking this. why could he call down w/ just a naked J? I doubt he's folding JQ, JT here. i think you give him too much credit. you MUST bet that river and fold to the raise.

[terp]

try to keep your betting as a % of the pot a little more consistent. flop "looks like" a cbet while turn looks like a valuebet. this guy might not notice but it's good practice.

bet/fold river. we lose too much value doing anything else against a 50/12, whom i think we can safely presume calls down too much. if he does otherwise i think the OP would have stated this.

even with the sick odds we're getting i'd turbo muck river