Finding Live Games in 5 Card Draw

[Murakawa]

One thing that I find effects my winrate in draw more than in perhaps any other game are the table statistics. In Hold Em', for instance, you can pretty quickly look at a game as too loose or too tight, and then sit down and find the maniacs and the weak - tighties and adapt your game. That doesn't always mean you'll win though.

In 5 card draw hi, though, I've found that I almost never have losing session at a loose table. At a tight table I find that my win rate goes down, naturally, but that I'm really grinding again. At these tight tables, there is very little dead money : people aren't drawing to straights and flushes, they are reraising with Kings Up and and sometimes people will fold to three-bet. That doesn't mean they're not profitable, of course. I've made good money sitting on the button raising with almost anything against a weak tight SB and BB. The one time they called me they had trips.

However, I also find in the tight games that I'm waiting and waiting. My pair of kings cannot call raise from early position against someone I know never opens with less than Aces. People in these games open limp with Queens in the cut off, making my Jacks on the button a tough play.

I guess there's a lot talk about there but IMHO loose tables are almost always beatable in the short run, and despite variance they up my BB/100 by at least 2 bets.

So then, what is a "live" table six handed?

I'm sure someone will have better math than me, but I find live games to be those where the average pot size is 2 and half times a big bet... so a 1/2 table with an avg pot of 6 is very live, and a 3/6 table with an avg pot of 18 is very live. Of course you can make money with less, but then you have to pay attention. I can make good money at most looser tables playing like robot, unless there's maniac.

By the time the average pot is 4 times the big blind, there is more dead money, but variance seems to go up a bit. I played a game like this where one player always limp called with a come draw, and two would play for ANY AMOUNT OF MONEY with a come draw. Naturally, I lost a capped pot with three kings to someone who drew 1 to his jack high flush after cold calling 3 bets. When there are four people in the pot, they almost have the pot odds to draw to this hand, but not quite, and it just makes it more frustrating for me, though in the long run I suppose better.

Once I'm in my live game by average pot, we have to consider percentages of players in the pot.

As for the % of players in the pot, I like between 30 and 50 %. I like twenty eight percent because it means that I will be either heads up or three handed, and in a game with a higher average pot size it means I will be heads up or three handed against people who ususally are dogs to me, especially with come draws. 40 or 50% usually just adds another come drawer or short pairs drawer in there. If you watch a tight game or you're in one you'll notice that besides getting trapped or bluffs, most hands are just folded to someone who raises and then steals the blinds, unless then BB calls with a decent hand, then it gets checked down.

As for the tables with 60% in the pot, well, that means that most people are in the pot with come draws and short pairs. It's also very profitable, but your Aces up aren't as big of a favorite against an entire table of people drawing to better hands. The players are often weak in these games and fold when they don't make their hand, so if you continuatino bet after the draw you get raised by a hand that beats you or you only win the predraw pot. This is still good, as you'll be making money, but still frustrating.

This is better for me and I'm happy to play the tables, but I prefer 40% because I almost always know where I'm at. Usually I'm against someone who I can quickly read how they play each kind of hand in which situation and use it to my advantage. When there are more players in the pot, I get confused. I don't like to be confused.

So i like 3X BB average pot tables with 40% of players in the pot.

Any thoughts?

[Beach-Whale]

Yeah.

It's pretty dry on Stars, Ongame has too high rake, and Paradise is dead...

Times have been better for online draw.

[Big Limpin]

Murakawa,
good post. i pretty much agree wih you across the board. i have a few things to add, i'll post again tonight. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Big Limpin]

im too drunk. i d this tomorrow

[Murakawa]

[ QUOTE ]
im too drunk. i d this tomorrow

[/ QUOTE ]

Jealous. I'm only my second glass of wine. But I'm ordering pizza and then I will be cheese drunk.

[Big Limpin]

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One thing that I find effects my winrate in draw more than in perhaps any other game are the table statistics.

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I emphatically agree! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

However, I put alot more weight behind the players per "flop" than the average pot.

If the site is calculating only on the last 10 hands or so, the average pot, while of some merit, really only reflets how juiced the deal has been. Yes loose calls/overcalls/etc will affect that, but probably not as much as youd think. Of course, one maniac shooting it up will def rasie the avg pot alot, casue of all the people having to call his bets when they know he's full of it. But i think most high avg pot tables have just had a hit-dealer the last couple orbits.

What i really care about is the ppl/flop stat. Thats where your dead money comes from...not the guy raising a little light, its the guy who limps-opens every 33xxx 99xxx, 2345, and 4flush he sees. You are, of course, popping this poor guy mercilessly several times an orbit. THATS where your profit comes from [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I;m used to the 5handed games on OnGame, Murakawa, I guess you are playing the 6h stars? But for ppl/flop that shouldnt matter. At my 1-2 game, 50% seems about average, but if theres half a dozen tables, you can usually find one or two above 60%. And that extra 10% is pretty much one weak-loose limp every couple hands [/drool]

Prior to reading your post, i pretty much took it as a given that the higher the better for this stat. Now you make me think. You mention:

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I like between 30 and 50 %

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[28%] I will be either heads up or three handed

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40 or 50% usually just adds another come drawer or short pairs drawer in there

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the tables with 60% in the pot, well, that means that most people are in the pot with come draws and short pairs. It's also very profitable, but your Aces up aren't as big of a favorite

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I prefer 40% because I almost always know where I'm at

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I don't like to be confused [[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]]

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I think i follow what you're hitting on here...and agree the weak-tight tables would be easier to play on autopilot, but you will never really "crush" those games. I can see playing 100 sessions at a 30% table, and winning 99 of those sessions, and showing like 1 or 2BB/100 return. It would just be 'bet-call, draw, check-bet-fold' ad nauseum...and for sure you will have the best of it, but like i say, i cant really see you getting rich off that.

The 60% tables though, like you say, that extra percentage is the second (third?) tier hands now playing, the shorts and draws...and assuming you arent afraid to push your edges, like raising when you are 4-way with a 40% shot at holding up...thats simply GOT to be a more exploitable game. I think i said in an earlier paragraph, your real money maker isnt the LAG putting in an extra big bet once an orbit, its the loose-passive guy who you keep charging 2 small bets [several] times an orbit, or better yet, the THREE limpers you keep popping. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

For sure, there will be varience increases, but if you play a long enough session, i still cant see you gettingloser too often, and you ought to pull a more substantial winrate.

So, yeah, i'm hearing what you say about the tighter tabels being more predicatable, but the loose action you give up every hand you sit at one of these tables, its just not worth it IMO. Opportunity cost and such!

Admittedly, i'm intrigued by your mention of come hands being, well, not correct gambles, but less wrong at the losse table. I hadnt really thought of that (and im also playing 5max), but i can see your point. However, as long as you continue to charge 2 small bets when you got a made hand, its still way in your favor. I guess you jsut get more prctive typing "nice catch, chump" in the chat

*Your opinions on the QQQ hand i just posted?

[Murakawa]

Yes you're right about more money being better. I know that you know you can play come draws in Pot Limit, though usually in a multiway pot. That's a whole other issue.

Yes, a looser table is better, and the stars tables aren't loose enough right now. I mean, I was playing the .50/1 just to see, and those 40% tables were like sleeping and the money came in. Those players also tend to be weak right enough to call kings up instead of reraising, and Oh please I gotta move to Canada, the ongame tables were so much better!!

I hope poker.com pulls through.

[Addiction]

Don't know. lol.

[Beach-Whale]

And I hope Ongame lowers its rake, and Stars removes the .5-1 limit...

[tecapparatus]

Although I will look at these stats when choosing a table,

I have found it easier to look for players I haven't seen
before, assuming that there is a better chance they are fish than the dozen or so everyday players.