early in tournament, AA against very dangerous flop

[rapsu]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t1500)
Button (t1480)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
MP1 (t1540)
MP2 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, MP1 calls t60, MP2 calls t60, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t250) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t60</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t1440</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t0

No reads, what do you think of the play?

[Dunkman]

Raise more PF, giving really nice implied odds with a 3x raise 75 BBs deep.

Looks like a SA/WB spot, although I think you're SA a pretty decent % of the time. I can't really put villain on a range, he could have all kinds of draws, 2 pair, sets, etc. I actually think I'd probably call and gamble on a double up this early, although you're definitely gambling because he has you in trouble a lot of the time. As to your play, I doubt you lost a lot of EV by folding, and us having the Ah does slightly decrease the chances of him drawing, although there's so many damn draws on that board it doesn't decrease it as much as it would usually. I'm just kinda willing to gamble for a double early, because I can usually just fire up another one if I bust and usually once I get an early double I can really start draining the table.

[ForRealDD]

EDITED: Can probably go either way. 1 argument for calling is that nearly 1/3 of your stack is already in the middle, and you're getting a fair price.

Actually, the numbers look compelling for a call here.

Board: 9c Td Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.040% 42.86% 01.18% 129828 3588.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 55.960% 54.78% 01.18% 165936 3588.00 { 99-88, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o }


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[Eratosthenes]

Raising 3x in a low buyin tournament is almost the equivalent of limping. 4x is my min raise in these spots. More if there have been lots of raise callers on previous hands.

If you fold you are down to 1140 and will need some good cards soon to be competitive. You will sometimes see draws and hands like AT. So a call is not horrible. Just folding is OK, too.