50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?

[Nick Royale]

Push.

[Bavid Denyamine]

if you are stacking off on any river regardless of scare cards, why not call and let him bluff the lower end of his range instead of shoving and getting called by only the highest end of his range?

[Babalatexi]

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if you are stacking off on any river regardless of scare cards, why not call and let him bluff the lower end of his range instead of shoving and getting called by only the highest end of his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because villain will get away from a set and probably won't go all-in with a lower flush if a 4th diamond hits and will most likely not go broke with a lower flush if the board pairs. Either of these happens a little over 40% of the time. The question is how often villain has a flush/set on the turn compared to Tp/air and how much we're going to make from Tp/air by just calling the turn (I don't think much at all, us calling the turn is very strong so villain will be vary with bad/no hands on the river). I am not ready to give bluffs and Tp that much weight and hoping to get more bets from these hands while sacrificing the money we'd make versus sets/flushes to just call the turn so I push it.

[Bavid Denyamine]

yeah i don't disagree with that at all, i just think either line is letting villain play 50% of his hands perfectly, and his stats make me think flush/set is less frequent

[Shattered]

Situation A: Villain has a set, made flush, or two pair and is willing to stack off right now. In this case, shoving is clearly best.
Situation B: Villain has air and is making a play at the pot with absolutely nothing. Folding and letting him bluff any river is best here.

I'd say with this particular villain's stats, B is by far the more likely scenario (anywhere up to 3 times as likely). Obviously it's not a large sample size, but you definitely notice maniacal tendencies over 70 hands. I like a call and check/call any river all in, but I don't think it's very different EV-wise from just shoving now.

[Bavid Denyamine]

^ what i was trying to say

[You're No Daisy]

This is a tough question because what in the heck raises you here? A set, a smaller flush like someone holding J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? If you raise, you might fold out the smaller flush and if you smooth call, you're giving villain a free shot at filling up.

However, in making a decision I have to go by his stats. His aggression factor is 5 and that tells us he's super aggro. He probably won't let go of this hand no matter what so I would probably shove since he has you covered. On the turn you only have about $66.35 left in your stack. Min-raising will probably get a call and only leave you roughly $24 in your stack on the river. He'll call that too because of the pot odds, so you might as well get it all in on the turn. His aggression factor indicates he doesn't like to let go of his hands. 3-betting the turn makes no sense because if he calls, you'll be left with less than $20 on the river and like I said before, he's gonna call a small river bet because of the pot odds and he's pot committed.

What do you put villain on? I think in this situation you have to put villain on a strong hand. His turn raise indicates he has a very strong hand and is not putting you on A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I would shove and expect to see villain turn over QQ hoping you have AA or KK. his raise on the turn is probably for value and to price out someone with AA (holding the A of diamond). We know that's not what you have...but he doesn't.

I'm assuming villain was not holding something donkish like 86?

AC

[ryang]

tank + shove

[EMc]

When the villain shows interest, this is great place to shove. Esp since you will and should be shoving AA and KK with the diamond here.

[olliejen]

honestly i think you need to know better how this guy plays and even then it may not make much of a difference.

If he has a set or a middle'ish flush, well, shoving the turn is good.

If he has a top pair type hand, trying to make some sort of goofy move, he'll probably fold a shove.

If he's trying to pull off some sort of semi-bluff with an OESD, a single biggish [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or if he's trying to value raise a straight, he might call a smallish 3-bet, maybe not.

i would act like i'm thinking real hard and raise it to 40-45 like I'm trying to take control of the hand back. but i think against the majority of his range, he's probably not putting any more $$ in regardless...