Party 2-4 Aces in BB

Runner Runner · #1 12-05-2006, 11:06 AM

Just sat down and have a full $400 at the start of the hand. Both villains have around the same. Folded to LP who raises to $12, button calls, I call with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Pot = $38

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Checked around, turn is 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I check, LP bets $38, button calls, I call.

Pot = $152

River is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet $101.

Thoughts?

MHP · #2 12-05-2006, 11:57 AM

Its a bold attempt to bluff on the river. I think against one opponent it would be very good- against 2 opponents it is marginal. Since most people bet nut flush draws like a made hand- I would imagine someone with a heart flush would call this river bet because they don't believe you have the nuts.

Runner Runner · #3 12-05-2006, 12:47 PM

I called the turn obviously knowing that a spade would make me my hand and that some of the time the board would pair and it would be checked down so aces up would be good.

Once the heart came I thought a 2/3 pot bet would make a lot of flushes fold but Ya, I guess getting a 2nd or 3rd nut flush to fold there is a little bit of wishful thinking.

I guess straights and sets SHOULD fold often enough to make this bet profitable though?

wazz · #4 12-05-2006, 01:45 PM

I don't like it. You have blockers on the nut straight, checkraise the turn rather than bluffing the river.

restrikt · #5 12-05-2006, 02:46 PM

Obv. you should raise preflop, but as played...

River bet is good - key is you have the Ace of hearts, so no one can have the nuts.

pete fabrizio · #6 12-05-2006, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just sat down and have a full $400 at the start of the hand. Both villains have around the same. Folded to LP who raises to $12, button calls, I call with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Pot = $38

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Checked around, turn is 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I check, LP bets $38, button calls, I call.

Pot = $152

River is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet $101.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

You will get called by any flush. Repeat after me: No one folds the river for one more bet after improving. Ever.

Runner Runner · #7 12-05-2006, 03:24 PM

restrikt - With these stack sizes, I don't think it's a good idea to reraise PF OOP with marginal aces.

I guess the bet on the end is marginal also. The bluff has to succeed 40% of the time to be better then checking. I still think some flushes would fold but maybe I am wrong.

For anyone interested in the results: They did both fold (but fairly quickly though, so no one else had a flush).

pete fabrizio · #8 12-05-2006, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
River bet is good - key is you have the Ace of hearts, so no one can have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is so practically irrelevant in this spot.

cmyr · #9 12-05-2006, 03:53 PM

I think some flushes fold, and I think alot of players don't have a flush here anyway, and you take it down at least 50%. I don't agree with Pete's theorem, I think alot of conservative omaha players have a "calling bets with weak flushes is for suckers" mentality.

pete fabrizio · #10 12-05-2006, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think some flushes fold, and I think alot of players don't have a flush here anyway, and you take it down at least 50%. I don't agree with Pete's theorem, I think alot of conservative omaha players have a "calling bets with weak flushes is for suckers" mentality.

[/ QUOTE ]

And that mentality is trumped by cognitive dissonance: "Why the F was I paying to see this river if I'm just going to hit my hand and fold?"

I mean "improved" in a particular sense: if someone had a small nut straight on the turn, bet and got called and makes a non-nut flush on the river, he hasn't really improved and may fold (although I wouldn't count on it). but if he had a straight draw/flush draw on the turn and hits his flush, he will call every time.

In this particular hand, there is SOME chance that the middle player will fold a small flush because a) he was the aggressor on the turn, and b) he potentially has to worry about more than one bet since he can't close the action. but again I wouldn't count on it.