Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[PokerFink]

Hey Kyleb, great stuff!

1) I thought you were more into pitching than hitting, so it surprises me that you're a hitting coach and not a pitching coach. What gives?

2) What's your opinion on the Moneyball idea that tools/scouts are largely irrelevant and all you need is a player's stats?

(Also, does anyone else read his name as Kyleb (Ky-Leb) instead of Kyle B? Or am I the only idiot?)

[rwperu34]

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What's your opinion on the Moneyball idea that tools/scouts are largely irrelevant and all you need is a player's stats?


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As a two decade "prospecter", I can tell you that I use the scouts opinions and combine that with the stats to paint the complete picture. The younger the player and lower the level, the more weight I put on scouting reports. For example, in rookie ball, the weight is something like 99% scouting reports, 1% stats. For a 23yo at AAA the weight is closer to 50/50, maybe even 60/40 in favor of stats. Once a player has an established level of performance in the major league, especially after his 25th birthday, it's about 100/0 in favor of stats.

To answer your question directly, I do not think that scouts/tools are irrelevant, and in fact, with minor leaguers, the scouts/tools are more important.

[PokerFink]

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To answer your question directly, I do not think that scouts/tools are irrelevant, and in fact, with minor leaguers, the scouts/tools are more important.

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So, basically, you think Billy Beane is wrong.

[kyleb]

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To answer your question directly, I do not think that scouts/tools are irrelevant, and in fact, with minor leaguers, the scouts/tools are more important.

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So, basically, you think Billy Beane is wrong.

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Billy Beane does not think stats tell the whole story. How could stats tell a story for a high school hitter, where the scorekeeper is usually a parent with major bias? How could stats tell the story of an NDFA from the Dominican Republic?

Moneyball made the A's office look like a bunch of scout-hating geeks, which is only true in comparison to the rest of the league. Jeremy Brown was drafted because he could control the plate; his flaw was he was fat. Scott Hatteberg was signed because he could control the plate; his flaw was that he was injured.

In a sense, the stats can only exist if the tools are present. No hitter with a garbage swing and poor tools will generate high walk and power numbers. That being said, focusing on what a hitter could do based on his "raw tools" and ignoring the fact he strikes out in 40% of his plate appearances and walks in 1% is equally stupid.

[kyleb]

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Hey Kyleb, great stuff!

1) I thought you were more into pitching than hitting, so it surprises me that you're a hitting coach and not a pitching coach. What gives?

2) What's your opinion on the Moneyball idea that tools/scouts are largely irrelevant and all you need is a player's stats?

(Also, does anyone else read his name as Kyleb (Ky-Leb) instead of Kyle B? Or am I the only idiot?)

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1) I love pitching, but over the last year or so, I've learned that I can pick up hitting a lot easier. It makes sense and is much easier to explain, study, and practice. I'll do a short bit on pitching later on as well.

2) That's not really the Moneyball idea, but I see why people get that feeling based on Lewis's book. I believe what a player has done (stats) is more important than what a player can do (tools), but too much reliance on stats will lead to the Blue Jays Syndrome - getting a ton of low-ceiling low-variance players in your farm system without any impact players.

Drafting mainly college kids with emphasis on what they have done rather than what they can do will lead to a farm system that produces a high percentage of players to make AAA/MLB, but a low percentage of All-Stars.

Drafting mainly high school / foreign kids with emphasis on tools rather than what they have done will lead to a depleted farm system that produces a low percentage of players to make AAA/MLB, but a higher percentage of All-Stars.

You need a blend of both to succeed.