15/30 lame pair + GS - +EV peel?

donger · #1 08-09-2007, 11:52 PM

The PFR in this hand is seriously fishy. The game insta-broke the minute he left. He's like 84/22/.9 or something and occasionally does weird and really awful stuff postflop like raising JTo UTG then trying to ram it home on a A55-Q-7 board. He also cold called 3 bets with 64o from a utg & utg+1 raise-reraise. BB is a little too passive preflop and a little fishy, but def more aggro than UTG. Should I venture past the turn here? Is preflop OK?

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $15/$30
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Donger is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG raises, 3 folds, Donger calls, BB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
Donger checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Donger calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.5BB, 3 players)
Donger checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Donger ??.

***********************

Hypothetical: We call and the river is

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 3 players)
Donger ???

TheHip41 · #2 08-10-2007, 12:02 AM

i fold pf, but whatever

i fold the flop, you have to hit, then dodge about 1 billion cards when you do hit.

blackasthma · #3 08-10-2007, 12:05 AM

I would fold this on the turn.
Hypo: I would check/call that river. If you bet river and BB calls or raises, you're probably beaten. If it's checked to UTG on river, he may bet with anything. On the other hand, if BB bets river and UTG (bluff)raises, you've got a tough decision. I think that as long as BB bets in this situation, your two pairs is a loser.

donger · #4 08-10-2007, 12:05 AM

What are the cards you're talking about? UTG probably doesnt have a pair yet and BB's range is pretty wide. I'm also closing the action each round.. I get to check, let BB act, then see what UTG does before I decide.

donger · #5 08-10-2007, 12:11 AM

How would you estimate my outs on the turn?

I think all 5s are probably good, and my GS and two pair outs are about 50% each, so weighted, they total ~3.5. That's like 5.5 outs total, by my estimation. Is this optimistic?

blackasthma · #6 08-10-2007, 12:32 AM

If you feel that way, why didn' t you bet the flop??? You might have found out right then that you were ahead in the hand all along. Instead, BB took control on the flop, possibly having nothing more than a flush draw. But the way you played it, you must dump this on the turn in my opinion...

sharpie · #7 08-10-2007, 02:36 AM

I would fold PF, but I rarely play in a 2/3 structure. Flop is a standard peel for me. On the turn we need 6 outs, I would conjure up that we have that many, but it seems close. On the hypothetical river I would donk and decide what to do if raised.

Oink · #8 08-10-2007, 06:23 AM

I think you played postflop fine. Folding the flop closing the action with those odds are insanely weak IMO. I also have a hard time seeing what donking would acomplish on the flop as proposed by others.

Turn is close but I call. I think your estimation of outs is ok - maybe slightly pessimistic. it wont happen a lot but sometimes you have the best hand and the river checks through which improves your odds.

I would prolly bet out on the river but I suck at those spots.

Backstabr · #9 08-13-2007, 07:03 PM

I def fold PF.

Fold the turn. I don't think your outs are good here often enough.

I probably bet the river.

Buffsta8 · #10 08-14-2007, 05:15 PM

lead river rest of the hand is fine as long as you called turn. pre flop may be a fold not a big deal either way imho itd be a lot better if the fish was likely to jam ridiculous hands than a fish that just 3 barrels too much especially with a hand like yours fwiw