KJs hand I wasn't happy with

baronzeus · #1 03-13-2006, 06:02 AM

villain is a 30/16 type full ring player. wtsd 33

Ultimate Bet 80/160 Hold'em (8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets,

ShortySaurus · #2 03-13-2006, 06:05 AM

raise the river call a 3 bet

baronzeus · #3 03-13-2006, 06:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
raise the river call a 3 bet

[/ QUOTE ]

why call a 3bet?

ShortySaurus · #4 03-13-2006, 06:25 AM

you are going to fold top 2 heads up for one more bet? Yeah if he 3 bets you are most likely beat but unless you are 100% sure you are beat then i can't fold this....pay him off.... just my 2 cents.

DcifrThs · #5 03-13-2006, 06:25 AM

its rare where a line like c'r fodl to a 3bet is correct but if it ever is its on this river.

Barron

ShortySaurus · #6 03-13-2006, 06:30 AM

if villain would never 3 bet AK or AA here (and you'd have to be almost 100% certain)....perhaps a fold is correct...but wow--i just don't see myself laying it down -- i would pay him off....guess thats why i dont play as high as you guys

Jay. · #7 03-13-2006, 06:43 AM

ya. c/r fold 3. pretty dam obvious you have KJ once you c/r

DcifrThs · #8 03-13-2006, 06:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
if villain would never 3 bet AK or AA here (and you'd have to be almost 100% certain)....perhaps a fold is correct...but wow--i just don't see myself laying it down -- i would pay him off....guess thats why i dont play as high as you guys

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look at the board and the action. this player would have to be attrocious to 3bet this river with AA/AsK

after the turn raise BZ is facing a tough decision. i can't see a fold on teh turn being that bad. BZ is getting about 9.5:1 on his call and can likely be drawing to 3 or fewer outs. sometimes he'll have all 5 outs but not likely. the fact that he has on average probably 4 or so outs makes this a very very very close call (the looseness of the opponent raises the average # of outs BZ has and makes the very very very small probability that he is ahead a possibility).

we could mathematically parse out the possible hands but it comes down to AsKx/AA/flush/set probably in that order. very rarely yoou'd see QQs there in an attempt to get a weaker kicked K to fold but thats a rare event imo.

given the call on the turn (b/c BZ concluded he had about 4 outs on average- and MAYBE MAYBE MAYBE might be ahead), the Jc is like the dream card on the river as only KK/flush/lower set beats him now and the AKs AAs combos are more likely and will definately bet the river when checked to.

now once BZ c'rs he's rep'ing a flush or set at the very very least. and there is no way in hell his opponent will ever expect him to fold so his 3bet is almost surely not a bluff. a 3 bet here is a strong flush or set. either way it crushes the 2 pair BZ has. but AA/AK are likely to call b/c the odd line from opponent's perspective screams either flush or bluff. therefore AA/AK will call here plenty and a c'r is likelyt he best play on the river. but if you c'r, you CANNOT call a 3bet otherwise bet/call or check call vastly dominate that strategy. if your game contains a river c'r/call kinda line here then you need to work on river play.

Barron

baronzeus · #9 03-13-2006, 07:08 AM

very good analysis.

i checkraised here and folded to a 3bet. I felt empty afterwards [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

About the turn, I am not sure I like folding here as much because it is possible he is semi bluffing or something (although he is unknown) or maybe even freeshowdowning QQ + a spade or something.
Anyone agree?

Edit; Oh, also, you are forgetting another KJ in your analysis. Still don't think he has it often enough to call for chop here.

DcifrThs · #10 03-13-2006, 07:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
very good analysis.

i checkraised here and folded to a 3bet. I felt empty afterwards [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

About the turn, I am not sure I like folding here as much because it is possible he is semi bluffing or something (although he is unknown) or maybe even freeshowdowning QQ + a spade or something.
Anyone agree?

Edit; Oh, also, you are forgetting another KJ in your analysis. Still don't think he has it often enough to call for chop here.

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while i did forget KJ (i actually gave him the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn't 3 bet that pf) i dont think he 3 bets the river with it either. the 3 bet is vvv strong here and in no way expects a fold.

Barron