icm question: set mining early

hoyasaxa · #1 08-14-2007, 12:34 AM

First, a big hand I won. This is the second hand of the tournament:

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t1470)
SB (t1470)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
MP1 (t1410)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1650)
CO (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t90, Hero calls t90, 2 folds, MP3 calls t90, 3 folds, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t375) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets t30, BB calls t30, UTG folds, Hero calls t30.

Turn: (t465) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t425, MP3 calls t425, BB raises to t1380 (All-In), Hero calls t955 (All-In), MP3 folds.

River: (t3650) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)
.

Final Pot: t3650

Results in white below: 
BB has Jd Jc (one pair, jacks).
Hero has 4h 4s (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero wins t3650. 

Now, in this hand,I called 90 chips to win almost 2000.

The question is, is this equity improvement worth the call? This is assuming i simply fold to any bet without a flopped set. Also, how much did my equity improve with new stack at 3500?

STALLOWN3D · #2 08-14-2007, 12:42 AM

You can figure all that out with an ICM calculator.

http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html

hoyasaxa · #3 08-14-2007, 01:03 AM

so I checked it out, and I more than doubled my equity. By simply calling 90 chips. Basically, playing this pp is totally fine IMO at the low blinds, considering im risking 90 chips, changing my equity only slightly, to possible double it or more.

#4 08-14-2007, 01:15 AM

I fold this hand to a raise w'out a read often. Reads I look for will payoff with overpair/c-bet often and large.

you'll make a set 1 in 7.5x assuming that there you are folding in all other situations (As I am assuming this is only in relation to 77-). You need to make on average when you do hit your set t585 in the situation described above.

I don't set mine when it costs more than 5% of my effective stack as I think you never really obtain the value for it or if I am in late position and I there is 2 or more players in the pot (As 1 increases pot pf/increases chance of being paid off).

Just remember just because you hit your set doesn't automatically mean you get a free doubble up. Often you will win little to nothing.

I think Andy Block wrote a good article about this a while back on those FT lessons from pro's, although it was in a tournament I think the math can be easily applied to this situation

HajiShirazu · #5 08-14-2007, 01:33 AM

I would call in LP or the blinds, but not here. Besides the fact that it could be raised behind you, your relative position to the PFR is usually going to suck making it harder to extract the max if you hit a set.
Also it is 7.5 to 1 to flop a set but it's more like 12 to 1 to flop a set and actually win stacks against AA-JJ, AK if they stack off only with TP or better, since you can lose with a set, or they can flop bad with AK or JJ.

TheNoodleMan · #6 08-14-2007, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this hand to a raise w'out a read often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are lighting money on fire.

#7 08-14-2007, 01:47 AM

Explain hopefully using maths,

Cadaver · #8 08-14-2007, 02:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t90, Hero calls t90,

[/ QUOTE ]

leak

DeuceSeven · #9 08-14-2007, 02:07 AM

I call this all day, I don't know if the math is right. If the raise is getting around 10% of my stack then I start worrying about position as to whether I should call or not. I feel for the equity I lose here (if I'm losing any) I gain by abusing donks around the bubble.

hoyasaxa · #10 08-14-2007, 02:15 AM

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t240 (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero (t2045)
MP (t2280)
Button (t4250)
SB (t2240)
BB (t2685)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to t480, 2 folds, BB calls t240.

Flop: (t1080) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, MP checks.

Turn: (t1080) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, MP checks.

River: (t1080) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, MP bets t960, BB folds.

Final Pot: t2040