KQo losing ground on the turn

HermannTL · #1 11-25-2007, 12:06 AM

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero...

UTG seems competent, SLAG, 26/10.3/2.5 (107), no relevant notes (the closest being PFR with A9o in CO then raising flop with TPMK).

MP3 is as loose as possible, a bit AG PF, passive after: 94/6.0/0.65, no relevant notes...just ATC.

BB is not as loose but similar: 61/7.1/0.50.

The ace on the turn is bad news, and the c/r is worse. Mind you, UTG did not raise PF and his range for that is pretty wide, but certainly includes a bunch of aces...and two passives are along for the ride. I think I should fold here.

kerowo · #2 11-25-2007, 12:18 AM

Raise this up preflop. Fold the turn.

Aaron W. · #3 11-25-2007, 01:11 AM

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Fold the turn.

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Check the outs and odds again. I think hero has a peel/fold UI here. Looks like UTG has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] quite often. I suppose it could be 99 sometimes, too.

bozlax · #4 11-25-2007, 01:23 AM

For starters, raise freplop.

Next, why did you bet the ace on the turn? Do you think none of your opponents has an ace? Do you think that anyone holding an ace is going to fold? The problem with bet/fold in this instance is that you have the odds to call for your 2pr-or-better outs. Check, see what MP3 does and if he bets what happens after him; it doesn't really kill you if it gets checked through, and since it looks like nobody's folding anyway why worry about giving a free card?

Aaron W. · #5 11-25-2007, 01:42 AM

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Check, see what MP3 does and if he bets what happens after him; it doesn't really kill you if it gets checked through, and since it looks like nobody's folding anyway why worry about giving a free card?

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I'm fine with the turn bet. It gets value out of the potential flush draw and gutshot straight draws that are out there. It also gets value out of a hand like Q9. There's no particular reason to think an ace is out there yet given all the flop coldcalls (which is often an indication of better than a naked A-high compared to if they had just called one bet).

OziBattler · #6 11-25-2007, 02:00 AM

raise preflop. youve hand is better than SLAGs range. hand then goes differently.

turn CRs such as this signal strength but when slag does it it doesnt mean the immortal nuts. calling doesnt mean you have to call the inevitable river bet UI although youll see people at your tables calling all day every day in this sort of spot.

bozlax · #7 11-25-2007, 12:06 PM

Aaron:

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I'm fine with the turn bet. It gets value out of the potential flush draw and gutshot straight draws that are out there. It also gets value out of a hand like Q9. There's no particular reason to think an ace is out there yet given all the flop coldcalls (which is often an indication of better than a naked A-high compared to if they had just called one bet).

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Is this a limit-based play? Given that the most-likely draws are something plus an ace OC? C'mon. *

Herman:

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I think I'll find out right here if one of them does

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Yeah, so you just found out. So, all this becomes is an outs vs. pot odds question, and you should at least take a shot a working that out for yourself.

*Edit: "charge the flush draw"? By giving them the right odds to call. O rly?

maverickai · #8 11-25-2007, 12:26 PM

grunching:

Why didn't you raise preflop? You have a premium hand.

Yah, I think you are toasted here. UTG is not raising to protect his vulnerable hand. He is raising for value and looping the rest of the players in to pay him off. Prob he has top pair, and a flush draw to boot.

Aaron W. · #9 11-25-2007, 12:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fine with the turn bet. It gets value out of the potential flush draw and gutshot straight draws that are out there. It also gets value out of a hand like Q9. There's no particular reason to think an ace is out there yet given all the flop coldcalls (which is often an indication of better than a naked A-high compared to if they had just called one bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a limit-based play? Given that the most-likely draws are something plus an ace OC? C'mon. *

*Edit: "charge the flush draw"? By giving them the right odds to call. O rly?

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Value betting is the primary skill of limit hold'em. You are trying to maximize on the small edges that the game allows. You make money if they call with a flush draw.

I don't agree with the premise that the most likely draws are something plus an ace OC. There are lots of gutshots out there, (QJ/QT/JT/87/86/76) plus a number of worse Kx hands (KQ/KJ/KT/K8s), some worse 9x hands (Q9/J9/T9), and flush draw hands.

HermannTL · #10 11-26-2007, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Herman:

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'll find out right here if one of them does

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, so you just found out. So, all this becomes is an outs vs. pot odds question, and you should at least take a shot a working that out for yourself.

*Edit: "charge the flush draw"? By giving them the right odds to call. O rly?

[/ QUOTE ]
My shot at the odds--now--is that I'm getting about 11:1 and I need about 8:1 except I'm not closing the action and my heart outs are tainted. To my mind that makes this a marginal call.

As for a hostile draw, they already *have* the odds to call but if I don't bet they get infinite odds because the draw costs them nothing. (I think that's an SSHE quote, but maybe I have the wrong authors.)

Oh, and KQs in that position is a call in my not-so-dusty starting hands chart, and that's why I called. I don't have the experience and judgment to stray very far from the charts just yet. However, I want to increase my PFR% a bit and that's a logical hand to add to my repertoire.